Schools have already closed in several states and the night leaves its first senators. Democrat Mark Warner renews his seat in Virginia, according to early projections, as does Jon Ossoff, also a Democrat, in Georgia. The Republicans came in with a majority of 53 to 47, and the Democrats need to take four seats from them without losing any. At two in the morning (peninsular time in Spain), the Democrats control 41 seats, the Republicans, 31; and there are 28 left to know.
The big loot
There are only a few hours left to know if the Democratic Party's dream of taking over the great loot at stake in these midterm elections is still alive: control of the Senate. Of the multiple seats in dispute throughout the country (35 for the Upper House), only a small fraction can be considered truly competitive. There are seven, mainly: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, battles where not only a majority in Congress is at stake, but the possibility of breaking inertia that has lasted for decades. Kansas, where a Democratic senator has not won in almost 100 years, could make a splash, and in Texas, James Talarico aspires to beat a Republican in one of the most conservative strongholds in the country. The incentives are multiple for midterms with historical overtones.
On Monday morning, all eyes were on Michigan, where Abdul El Sayed and former Republican Representative Mike Rogers are fighting for a state that Trump won by 1.4 points in 2024. The latest polls gave El-Sayed a comfortable lead, 53% to 42%, although without taking into account the unexpected rift that has opened up among progressives. Democrat Haley Stevens, who lost in the primary to the Muslim candidate, added an important element to the race by endorsing Rogers, a gesture that has caused enormous unrest among Democratic ranks. It remains to be seen if the effect of the "despicable betrayal" - as it has been called in the party - influences the results.
Alaska
Another hot spot on election night will be Alaska, a traditionally icy territory for Democrats. Mary Peltola, who lost her seat in the House of Representatives in 2024, has returned with a three-word motto, "fishing, family and freedom", in front of a Dan Sullivan who boasts of his harmony with Trump. In the background, the controversy over a third candidate whose name coincides with that of the Republican, Dan J. Sullivan, and who Republicans consider a fraud committed by Peltola to divide the Republican vote.
Maine
In Maine, all eyes are on the long career of Susan Collins, who has been in office for almost 30 years. He is seeking his sixth term in a state that Kamala Harris won by 6.9 points. Her last name and her career have sustained her for decades, and a tumultuous Democratic primary process gave her air. But Troy Jackson is ahead in the latest polls: 51% to 45% in The New York Times/Siena and nine points ahead according to the University of New Hampshire.
Kansas
Kansas dreams of notoriety on Tuesday night. Trump won by 16 points but the Reverend Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor and former Republican, has put Senator Roger Marshall on the ropes. His support has a lot of rejection: 59% of voters say they move mainly in opposition to Marshall. Half of the senator's voters prioritize control of the Senate, and Trump went to the state in person in the final stretch.
texas
In Texas, the Republican seat that most worries the party is in dispute. Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%, according to The New York Times, although the average published by The Washington Post last week reduced the gap to three points. A Republican defeat in that state would be a considerable blow to Trumpism, on a night in which another of his supporters, Governor Greg Abbott, starts with a slight advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Only two polls put the state congresswoman of Mexican origin ahead.
Iowa
Iowa is the firewall that Republicans rely on. With Joni Ernst withdrawing, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Representative Josh Turek in a state that Trump won by 13 points. Hinson has distanced herself from some of the president's less popular policies, a move many analysts say is clever and has helped keep her tied in the polls with Turek. It aims to be one of the most disputed battles of the night, with a minimal margin between the two.
Ohio
Ohio has become the most watched return of this election. Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is looking to return to Washington against Republican Senator Jon Husted, in a state that Trump won by 11.2 points in 2024. Brown has led all three Fox News polls this year and leads his rival by 49% to 44% according to The New York Times/Siena polls, which has led Fox to classify the race as leaning towards the Democrats.
