Time really does fly when you're having fun. It's difficult to believe we're already kicking off Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season, and Thursday Night Football brings us a reasonably intriguing NFC East matchup as the Giants host the Commanders.
On the surface, it appears to be one surprisingly good team against one pretty bad team. However, this NFL Week 10 matchup could dramatically shift the division race for both teams. It also should at least be a close one, with DraftKings Sportsbook now listing New York as a 1.5-point favorite in its Commanders vs. Giants odds. The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 40.5.
J.J. McCarthy will start for the Giants again, his third start since being traded from the Vikings (who will be on their third quarterback since trading No. 9 away). The results so far have been mixed, even if both games ended in W's for New York. McCarthy looked like a future franchise quarterback against the Texans and much less so against the Eagles. Which guy do we get tonight?
His counterpart, Jayden Daniels, is much more secure in his position as a franchise QB, but the season is on the brink for Washington at 2-5-1. These two teams tied in ugly fashion the last time out -- if the Commanders had successfully pulled off the win in overtime (and they should have), this matchup would have even more juice.
Best bets for Thursday Night Football
Commanders +2.5
This line has started to drop across most of the market, so we'll happily take the +2.5 here that isn't available in most spots. I'm not going to say "wrong team favored" because the Giants are a well-coached football team that has earned its top spot in the division. I'm just not sure I have any interest in backing JJM as a favorite in prime time, and I am certain I have interest in fading him in that spot. The Commanders have some horrendous moments this year, but they've been a little victimized by a tough schedule. The Giants injury report is super favorable for them, but the Commanders are reasonably healthy as well. Dan Quinn can cook up some stuff defensively to stymie the erratic McCarthy here and I trust Daniels and Co. to get it done on offense with the weapons they have. Commanders outright.
Thursday Night Football player props
Malik Nabers Over 67.5 receiving yards (-112)
The bad news for Malik Nabers is he's catching passes from J.J. McCarthy. The good news for us is, because Nabers has JJM throwing him the ball, we're getting a reasonably reduced number for his receiving yards. Nabers might see a few less-catchable passes here, but he's still been peppered with targets over the last two games, with McCarthy looking his way 17 times. He easily cleared this number against a talented Houston secondary and probably clears it against the Eagles if Philly puts up any fight whatsoever. I think he has a big game in prime time.
Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 rush yards (-113)
This is the perfect spot to take an Over on Daniels rushing yards. He's pretty much in a must-win situation against a division rival in prime time. He's also as healthy as he's been since his injury, and he shredded the Giants on the ground the last time out, piling up 110(!) rushing yards with two rushing touchdowns. I love him to get loose on the ground here, and he can top this on a single run if he's feeling really frisky.
Thursday Night Football anytime touchdowns
Isaiah Likely (+190)
Pretty short number here, but I'm OK with it given how good Likely has been this season. He's playing like a top-five-ish tight end this year, and I'm not sure this is the week where he really slows down. Washington has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends (eight) on the year, and if they stack the box, McCarthy is going to LIKELY look his way in the red zone, where the former Raven has been lethal, scoring five touchdowns on nine targets/eight catches. I make no apologies whatsoever for the pun.
Antonio Williams (+410)
