The Commerzbank takeover is expected to be completed at the beginning of 2027

The major Italian bank UniCredit expects to take control of Commerzbank by the beginning of 2027 at the latest and wants to merge it with its German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank (HVB) earlier than previously planned.

The financial institution in Milan announced that the missing approvals should be available by the end of November. UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel then wants to “immediately” apply for an extraordinary general meeting at the Frankfurt financial institution to elect new supervisory board members.

In the first quarter of next year, Orcel finally plans to start implementing his concept for the Frankfurt financial institution, he said at a press conference. This poses only limited risks, especially since UniCredit has already gained relevant experience at HVB. The first phase was actually estimated to take two to three years, but it could also go faster if everyone took part.

Already received approval from the ECB

UniCredit had secured almost 50 percent of Commerzbank and received approval from the European Central Bank (ECB) for the takeover in October. Orcel made it clear that UniCredit does not want to go above the 50 percent threshold “in the foreseeable future.” Because that would result in a mandatory takeover offer for the Polish Commerzbank subsidiary mBank, which could cost the Italians another almost five billion euros.

“We would change our mind on the 50 percent threshold if all stakeholders at Commerzbank supported us,” he added. Commerzbank boss Bettina Orlopp made an unusually forthcoming statement last week: The board is convinced that it can create value together with UniCredit by consistently leveraging the strengths of both banks. The discussions with the Italians were constructive and professional.

Reconstruction of HypoVereinsbank as a blueprint

A merger of Commerzbank with the Munich UniCredit subsidiary HypoVereinsbank (HVB) could take place as early as 2028, earlier than expected, emphasized Orcel. It would “create significant additional value,” it said in a presentation. In April, the UniCredit boss only promised a merger between Commerzbank and HVB after 2028.

If HVB were incorporated into Commerzbank, UniCredit's share could increase significantly. However, this is likely to raise complicated valuation questions because HVB is heavily integrated into the Milan parent company. An even earlier merger is therefore illusory: “Takeover law takes time, so forget about 2027,” said Orcel.

UniCredit raises profit forecast

At the same time, UniCredit today reported a jump in profits for the summer quarter and raised the bar for the year as a whole. In the third quarter, the bank earned significantly more than analysts expected thanks to higher income. The surplus jumped by almost a quarter to almost 3.3 billion euros. For the year as a whole, Orcel is now targeting a profit of significantly more than 11.5 billion euros before special expenses.