With the flat tax 8 thousand euros of tax reduction, from the Irpef cut 450 euros

There are submerged and saved in the last maneuver. The most penalized are pensioners. For the self-employed, however, the provision smiles: they will pay 8 thousand euros less in taxes per year for the 55 thousand VAT numbers with revenues between 85 thousand and 100 thousand euros which will fall within the flat rate regime thanks to the flat tax. These are the simulations presented to the Chamber by Istat, which analyzed the main measures of the budget law. Much smaller benefits, on average 450 euros, will concern the beneficiaries of the Irpef cut for middle class incomes between 50 thousand and 55 thousand euros. In total, the measures analyzed affect 6.5 million families, one in four. For 3.5 million of these there are benefits, while the other 3 million face losses. The greatest costs fall on pensioners with incomes under 55 thousand euros. The tightening of revaluations compared to inflation for checks exceeding 2,447 euros gross will cost 3.6 million people 510 euros gross per year on average.

Considering the effect of all the tax measures overall, for pensioners who benefit from the Irpef reform the loss is reduced to 150 euros net, while for the others it is 290 euros. Those who benefit from the maneuver obtain an average benefit of 600 euros per family. Over three-quarters of these families belong to the richest 40% of the population, favored by the news on Irpef. The greatest help for the poorest families comes from incentives for working mothers. This is the mother bonus, which goes to around one million employed women with at least two children and rises to 1,100 euros per year. For most of the beneficiaries there is an increase, compared to last year, of around 460 euros. For others, however, the benefit is reduced. The 160 thousand mothers with at least three children, who until now enjoyed total exemption from contributions, will lose an average of 400 euros. The economic context doesn't help. According to new Istat forecasts, GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2026, below the 1% estimated by the Treasury, and by 0.6% in 2027.

Employment is slowing, while inflation is accelerating. Fiscal drag will thus continue to weigh on families, the mechanism whereby with the increase in prices and nominal wages, in the absence of an adjustment in rates, the tax burden increases even when real incomes do not increase. This phenomenon will bring 6.5 billion into state coffers in 2026, 5.4 in 2027 and 3.5 in 2028. In recent years, fiscal drag - Istat has calculated - is canceling the benefits of tax reforms. Between 2021 and 2027 it weighs on average 1,100 euros per taxpayer, canceling out the thousand euros of benefits deriving from tax reforms. Incomes under 20 thousand euros are saved, while the most penalized are those above 60 thousand, with a loss of up to 476 euros. Pensioners with medium and high allowances are also particularly affected and, due to the reduced recovery of inflation, they experience a negative impact of more than 350 euros per year. Meanwhile, a reassurance has arrived from INPS.

Unlike what was announced yesterday, from January 2027 the revaluation will concern all pensions, even those above four times the minimum. Any differences due to the new rules, still being examined by Parliament, will be recovered with a subsequent adjustment. A decision adopted in line with the Government's indications, "to protect the purchasing power of pensioners from the first installment of the year".