Industry confidence reaches lowest level since May 2020

The confidence of industrial entrepreneurs fell six points in November, falling from 46.2 to 40.2 points, according to a survey released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) this Friday (13). The Industrial Business Confidence Index (Icei) reached its lowest level since May 2020, when it reached 34.7 points.

This was the third biggest monthly drop since the beginning of the historical series, in 2010. As a result, the sector completes 23 months below the 50-point dividing line that separates optimism from pessimism.

According to Marcelo Azevedo, Economic Analysis Manager at CNI, the lack of trust is already affecting hiring, production and investment decisions, with possible impacts on employment, income and economic growth.

Worsening conditions

The Current Conditions Index fell 2.3 points, to 37.7 points, the lowest result since July 2020. The negative assessment affected both the Brazilian economy and the performance of the companies themselves.

Brazilian economy: drop of 2.7 points, to 30.6;

Situation of companies: decrease of 2.1 points, to 41.2.

Falling expectations

The Expectations Index fell 7.8 points, from 49.3 to 41.5. The retraction was mainly driven by the worsening outlook for the Brazilian economy.

Expectations for the economy: drop of 10.7 points, to 32.7, the lowest level since April 2020;

Expectations for companies: decrease of 6.4 points, to 45.9.

The expectations indicator for companies was below 50 points for the first time in more than six years. The brand indicates that industrialists have also started to show pessimism regarding business performance over the next six months.

Methodology

The CNI survey interviewed 1,104 companies between November 3 and 9, 2026 across the country. 463 small, 407 medium and 234 large industries participated.