COP31 summit targets major electrification push as 1.5C goal slips away

A pledge to have 35 per cent of the world powered by electricity by 2035 is the central aim of UN climate talks in Türkiye this week, as the international summit concedes for the first time that global temperatures will rise more than 1.5 degrees Celcius above pre-industrial levels.

Australia and Türkiye are joint presidents of this year's UN meeting on climate change.

Climate change minister Chris Bowen told the opening session of the conference that it was meeting "at a moment of consequence, whether it be glacial collapse in Nepal, heat deaths in Europe, or an intensifying El Niño" .

"Climate change is here. It is not a forecast. It is not a prediction. It is the lived reality for billions of people."

But discussion of what to do to reduce the burning of fossil fuels that has fuelled so much of that change is the elephant in the room at this year's meeting — not formally on the agenda, despite UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell telling the conference that "this year's fossil fuel cost chaos has delivered a global shock-wave, hitting households hard and spreading inflation like a cancer".

"The fall-out has been severe, both economically and politically, as we've just seen", in reference to the turmoil of the Iran War, and subsequent elections around the world.

As a major fossil fuel exporter, Australia has already come under intense criticism — particularly from Pacific nations — because it has allowed coal mining to expand and the North West Shelf gas project to be extended.

Türkiye's promotion of the push for faster electrification also comes against the backdrop of its own heavy reliance on fossil fuel generated electricity

It is Europe's largest coal power generator, with around 55 per cent of its electricity generated by coal and natural gas.

But the 35 per cent voluntary target remains relatively unambitious.

According to the International Energy Agency, electricity-generated power currently accounts for a 23 per cent share, and is forecast to rise to 30 per cent by 2035 as a result of existing policies already on track.

The international pledge at the climate talks held in Paris in 2015 was to limit the long term rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees per cent above pre-industrial levels.

Just eleven years later, Antalya is the first meeting to concede that won't happen.

Mr Bowen struck an optimistic note, saying that before Paris "the world was heading for warming approaching 4 degrees".

"Today, projections are closer to 2.6 degrees".

Türkiye and Australia say the Antalya meeting will focus mostly on trying to implement measures already agreed to, rather than set ambitious new targets.

Much of the focus will be on increasing finance support to poorer countries to adapt their energy systems and to offset the impacts of climate change.

This will include measures to slash methane emissions, particularly in the oil, gas and waste sectors.

Climate Council member and economist Nicki Hutley, who is attending the Antalya meeting said a global push to electrification "is exactly what Australian households need from this summit".

"We import most of our refined fuel, so conflicts overseas land at Australian bowsers fast, but sun and wind can't be blockaded or embargoed."

"What's missing is a clear commitment to move the world away from coal, oil and gas. Electrification only delivers lower bills and real security if we stop tying ourselves to volatile fossil fuel markets."