Haitham Al-Ghais, Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), wrote about the physical limits of the global energy transformation and the interdependence between energy sources for AA Analysis.
The world will need not only more electricity but also more of all other energy sources in the coming decades. We cannot build the future of energy by focusing on a single source and ignoring the role of others as it suits our interests. The "Electric Age" discourse, which is frequently mentioned these days, has not yet fully come into effect in the field. What we really need is a vision of an "Age of All Energies" that recognizes how indispensable each energy source is to the others.
It is possible to see the overlooked blind spots in electrification discussions under four main headings. The first of these is that the goal of "electrifying everything" has a concrete and physical equivalent: More raw materials, more mines and more materials.
The aforementioned 'Electricity Age' is based on installing new hardware in all areas of life, thus requiring intensive use of devices and equipment. This means that homes, offices, cars and cities are increasingly filled with physical products. The production and shipment of all this equipment is carried out through international supply chains. Raw materials and intermediate products cross the world and change hands many times until they enter the final assembly line. Moreover, this huge logistics network operates overwhelmingly with oil-fueled transportation vehicles.
On the other hand, increasing electrification will bring with it "the age of more cables and chargers." Each new device that the system relies on introduces at least one, often two or three adapters and cables into our lives. This means a pile of dozens of different chargers, low-voltage power supplies and patch cables. When it comes to electric vehicles, heavy cables and fixed internal installations that connect this entire system are added to the picture.
The petrochemical paradox of green transformation
Secondly, the electrification of everything increases the demand for oil-derived products. The devices on which this goal is based necessitate the heavy use of plastic. Plastic is needed for the insulation and outer covering of the cables. Chargers and power adapters are essentially plastic bodies surrounding transformers. Moreover, the shipment of all these equipment requires packaging, mostly made of plastic.
Many electrical technologies contain many more plastic components than the traditional systems they replace. A midsize electric vehicle, for example, contains about 45 percent more plastic and polymer composites than its similarly sized gasoline or diesel counterpart.
However, this petrochemical need of the electrification process is often overlooked. As a matter of fact, this issue was not mentioned much in the "Electrification" special report written by the International Energy Agency (IEA) before COP31.
It should also be noted that there are other challenges to the widespread use of electric vehicles. These obstacles include access to critical minerals, the capacity of public charging infrastructure, subsidies, and market realities that directly affect both producers and consumers.
Interdependence, not competition
Thirdly, as OPEC has repeatedly emphasized, the production, installation and maintenance of electricity grids are directly dependent on oil and oil-derived products. Cables, overhead power lines, electric poles, transformers, substations and control systems are all included in this scope. Especially as high-voltage submarine cables become more widespread, there will be a serious jump in the demand for special quality plastics and polymers.
Fourth, regardless of the energy source, electricity production itself is based on oil-derived products. 15 percent of the weight of an average wind turbine consists of petroleum-derived materials such as fiberglass, resin or plastic. Approximately 10 percent of a standard crystalline silicon solar panel is made of plastic. In short, oil derivatives play a critical role in every link of the value chain, which includes the production, construction and transportation processes of renewable energy technologies.
This entire picture clearly shows that we are not in a "zero-sum game" where growth in one of the energy resources leads to a shrinkage in the other. Energy types do not operate in closed circuits that are disconnected from each other. All energy resources will be needed to meet the increasing global energy demand, eliminate energy poverty that affects billions of people around the world, and establish energy security.
Instead of categorizing energy periods with sharp boundaries according to their sources, a much more appropriate approach would be to see the interdependence between sources and accept the fact that we live in the "Age of All Energies". As OPEC, we support the COP31 Presidency and hope that this message will resonate at the summit where climate issues will be discussed.
