Corruption royal commission looms over Victoria's election campaign

Twists and turns in the run-up to an election are common: dodgy candidates, gaffes and policies falling apart under scrutiny.

But next week, Victoria's election will take an unprecedented turn when the royal commission into the state's Big Build begins public hearings.

Called by Premier Ben Carroll, the inquiry is likely to be very uncomfortable for the Labor government.

Establishing the royal commission was Carroll's first act as premier — a point he has proudly, and frequently, made in campaign material.

It may be the noble thing to do, especially for a man who says "integrity is not negotiable", but the political risk is sky high.

The premier knows Labor is behind in the polls and kicking into the wind.

So handing political opponents the ball for two whole weeks of a four-week campaign has been labelled madness by some Labor insiders.

Corruption inquiry 'centre stage' as Labor fights for survival

What is a point of pride for the premier may be the death knell for any Labor comeback.

Having the past 12 years of Labor decision making, oversight and administration put under the microscope in public hearings could provide the Coalition, the Greens and One Nation with plenty of ammunition.

A central motivation for those who ousted former premier Jacinta Allan was the refusal to call a royal commission into the frequent allegations of corruption and criminality in construction that dogged her years in office.

The main reason to call an inquiry was to neutralise the issue for the government and give Labor a strong answer to persistent scandal allegations.

But any hope the public would reward Carroll and Labor for calling the inquiry quickly evaporated.

The government didn't receive a poll bounce from changing leaders — it thus seems unlikely voters will reward Labor over the next fortnight if hearings expose fresh corruption claims.

Former Labor strategist turned Redbridge pollster Kosmos Samaras said after neutralising the issue, Carroll's strategy should have be to "never talk about it again" and focus on core Labor strengths like education.

"However, his campaign has oddly woven the Big Build scandal into their campaign narrative, elevating it to high prominence, by including it in the premier's main TV pitch,'' he said.

While Labor knows it's swimming against the tide, an improvement of its popularity by just a few percentage points could change the complexion of dozens of seats.

It may make Opposition Leader Jess Wilson's quest for majority government more difficult.

After 12 years in office, this election is even more of a public review of Labor's performance than other elections.

And that's why some Labor hardheads are flummoxed that the royal commission was established quickly enough to be ready for the campaign.

Voters looking for full costings face a long wait

While Labor will face scrutiny through a high-powered legal probe, pressure will continue to mount on Wilson as voters and the media turn their focus to what the Coalition is promising to do should it win.

The biggest unanswered question being posed by economists is: do the Coalition's fiscal plans add up?

Jess Wilson, as both would-be premier and treasurer, assures voters they do.

Central to her pitch is that a Coalition government would bring down debt and repair the budget.

But so far, economists are worried Coalition plans have featured continued spending and cutting taxes while only outlining a ten year plan to reduce the size of the public service — a $22 billion saving over a decade.

Wilson and her team bristle at any suggestion they are going to make the budget worse.

On Friday, the Coalition unveiled a plan to bolster the budget bottom line by $1.3 billion by selling off government land across Melbourne and Ballarat.

But Wilson will need to offer up more ideas on fresh revenue or savings in the weeks ahead to silence the critiques of economists.

Labor is hamming up its efforts.

This week it produced a 64-page booklet running the ruler over the opposition's costings.

It was political theatre, but it was effective in focusing the press pack's attention on Wilson's plans — that day's press conference lasted less than five minutes.

The Coalition says its full costings will be released in the "usual way" in the dying days of the campaign — when at least one million voters will have already cast their ballots (early voting begins on November 18).

When asked if Victorians deserved to get the full picture before polls opened, Wilson replied: "Our policies will be released in the usual way. Victorians choose when they vote."

For all of Labor's cries about the Coalition's costings, it hasn't released detailed costings for its election pitches either.

And more than a decade of past budgets spell out how the state's fiscal position has declined under Labor, leading to a projected $197 billion debt.

The Reserve Bank threw another (foreseen) bump into the campaign when it hiked rates to an 18-year high on Melbourne Cup Day.

It warned government spending was contributing to the country's inflation problem.

That is a problem for both the premier and opposition leader.

Speaking to Raf Epstein on 774 ABC Melbourne, Carroll batted away questions about how government spending was contributing to inflation, arguing Labor's spending was "sustainable, targeted cost-of-living support".

Wilson conceded in a podcast interview with Neil Mitchell that government spending was inflationary but was unable to say how her plans would not be inflationary.

Fiscal management is higher on the agenda than recent elections.

As voters grapple their own household budgets, they are looking to political leaders to show that their understanding goes beyond rehearsed political lines.