Munich. Many people in the CSU took a deep breath this week before the party conference. In two consecutive surveys, Prime Minister Markus Söder's party was able to achieve its result from the 2023 state election once exactly and once almost. The 37 and 36 percent would have caused hectic activity in previous years, but the bar for the Christian Socialists is now significantly lower. So everything is good?
Not quite. Söder was able to rightly point out at the party conference - unlike the Union in the federal government or, for example, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia - that the CSU can currently decouple itself from the Union's threatening downward trend in surveys. “Perhaps we are actually the strongest part of the Union,” emphasized Söder in his 75-minute speech. The CSU must fight and should not be in a “vegetative state”. This is not a given, because after all the Christian Socialists in Berlin sit at the government table with the CDU and SPD. Nevertheless, not everything is rosy in the CSU these days.
Söder's speech has barely begun when the question of existence echoes through the exhibition hall: "It's now about the existence of the People's Party. That's why we have to and want to and will send a signal today," Söder calls out to his party. CSU General Secretary Martin Huber recently even denied the CDU's status: "As the last major people's party in Bavaria and Germany, we have a special responsibility." Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz would probably object - whether he will do so in his speech at the CSU party conference on Saturday remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the CDU and CSU are increasingly asking themselves where their parties are heading. Fears about their own status as a people's party have long since reached many regulars' tables in Bavaria.
Since party leader Söder declared Bavaria's state parliament president Ilse Aigner his favorite for the post of federal president months ago, the question of the 61-year-old's future has been discussed diligently. When Söder "heartily" granted Aigner the office at the party conference, the delegates burst into joy - there had never been so much applause before. Aigner - who has not yet commented personally on the personnel - can't help it and stands up without further ado, squirming contentedly.
The opinion is very clear: If Bayern had their way, the matter would be clear. But clarification is still awaited at the federal level. In the end, it all comes down to Chancellor Merz. If he spoke out clearly for Aigner in his speech in Munich, he would be sure to receive a lot of applause. But that is considered unlikely. Rather, the CDU indicates that it does not want to hand over the office to its sister party.
The latest surveys have shown: Merz's popularity ratings are also low in the Free State. In the CSU they are arguing with the Chancellor, who, it is said, has squandered most of the credit through his many announcements without any effect. Most people have correspondingly low expectations of his speech; even the boldest optimists in the CSU no longer really believe in an aha moment for a new spirit of optimism. In addition, the majority of supporters in the CSU would once again see their own party leader as the better alternative.
Söder himself is loyal to reserved. Those around him say that if he were called, the 59-year-old would be ready. The issue is likely to be on hold until the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in April 2027. However, if this further worsens the CDU's crisis, the K question is likely to be discussed loudly again.
More than half of the current legislative period is over. And after Söder's CSU was briefly but strongly shaken up after the local elections this year, the situation has calmed down a lot again. With the Free Voters, the CSU governs surprisingly silently; thematically, the coalition can point to many fulfilled election promises. In the speech, Söder commented surprisingly critically on whether the CSU would seek a coalition with Hubert Aiwanger's party again in 2028: "A continuation of the coalition is conceivable, but not unconditionally at any price and above all not at the expense of the CSU."
But there is no serious alternative in sight, as Söder has ruled out an alliance with the Greens many times and is doing so at the party conference (“I don't want any leftists in the Bavarian state government.”) The only question is whether there would be enough for a two-party coalition with the Free Voters again. Because: The AfD also enjoys high poll numbers in the Free State.
Some people in the CSU are also worried because the Berlin coalition is still not really getting going. As a result, the Christian Socialists could be drawn into the downward spiral, according to the board. That's why the fate of the CSU also depends on when, if and how the black-red coalition keeps its reform promises. And whether and when the reforms will have the hoped-for positive effects on the economy and the economy - and when people will feel this. The CSU cannot simply brush aside these and many other concerns at its party conference.
