Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and Presidential Strategy and Budget Head İbrahim Şenel met with foreign press members at the Presidential Complex within the scope of the "Medium Term Program International Media Meeting" for the 2027-2029 period.
Giving information to journalists about the Medium Term Program (MTP) in the program, Yılmaz stated that MTP is the basic framework that guides macroeconomic, financial and structural policies, which is updated every year in line with development plans.
Yılmaz stated that the MTP, in addition to revealing macroeconomic forecasts and policy variables, also determines the framework for public revenues, expenditures and borrowing.
Explaining that the MTP forms the basis for the preparation of the annual budget and defines the reform agenda for the relevant period, Yılmaz stated that they attach special importance to the consultation process with relevant stakeholders.
Reminding that Türkiye is a part of the global economy, Yılmaz said that developments at the global level also affect economic forecasts and policies.
Pointing out that conditions at the global level are following a very challenging course, Yılmaz said:
"When we look at the production worldwide, it is predicted that the expected level will be below the forecasts of a year ago. The growth in rural areas and the industrial sector in particular is of critical importance for Turkey, as these areas constitute a significant portion of our exports, and therefore foreign demand is of great importance for our exports. When we consider our trade partners, while the international forecast for the growth rate of our trade partners was 2.4 percent last year, while preparing the Medium Term Program, this rate has decreased to 1.6 percent today."
"THE WAR AFFECTED THE GLOBAL ECONOMY"
Vice President Yılmaz stated that the slowdown in industrial production is quite remarkable and said, "While a growth of 3.4 percent was predicted for this year last year, today's forecasts point to a contraction of 0.5 percent. In other words, there is a decline in the region. This shows that global trade conditions are not very favorable." he said.
Stating that the main reason for this is the war in the region and that it affects the entire global economy, especially the European region, Yılmaz noted that the reflections of this effect are also seen in Türkiye's trade performance.
Yılmaz reminded that in the comprehensive program prepared last year, Brent oil prices for this year were predicted to be 64.3 dollars per barrel, and said, "However, today's calculations show that the average price is 89.3 dollars. "So there is a serious increase in prices," he said.
Expressing that the same situation is valid for non-energy commodity prices, Yılmaz pointed out that non-energy commodity prices have also increased and global inflation is following an upward trend.
Yılmaz stated that this situation was also reflected in his predictions in the MTP and said:
"Our growth rate was predicted to be 3.8 percent, but we made a revision to this prediction. We currently forecast a growth rate of 3.3 percent. Industrial production expectations have also been revised and are at a different level compared to last year's forecasts. The year-end consumer price index (CPI) forecast was 16 percent, but we revised it to 28.4 percent. In fact, the Central Bank updated this forecast at different times, but since the MTP is revised annually, we also made this update on an annual basis.
For this reason, the revision in question is of greater importance than the revisions in other periods. In fact, we are consulting with the Central Bank while preparing this plan. Therefore, this is a picture that emerges as a result of the coming together of the forecasts of various economic institutions and joint assessments of current conditions."
"CHANGES ALSO AFFECTED CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES"
Pointing out that the predictions have similar effects on items such as the foreign trade deficit, Yılmaz said, "For example, an item that was previously predicted to be 96 billion dollars... Today, this figure is at the level of 105 billion dollars, that is, there is a difference of approximately 9-10 billion dollars compared to last year. "The main reason for this is the increase in our energy bill, which was predicted to be 63 billion dollars but is now expected to be 71 billion dollars," he said.
Stating that there has been a decrease of 3 billion dollars in the expectation of tourism revenues, Yılmaz stated that while an income of 68 billion dollars was predicted, 65 billion dollars is currently expected, and these changes also affect the current account balances.
Yılmaz said that when looking at growth forecasts, global trade is expected to be 5 percent and global growth is expected to be 3.5 percent for 2025.
Stating that the world economy is expected to grow by 3 percent this year and world trade by 3.5 percent, Yılmaz said, "However, the good news is that all international expectations for 2027 are positive. Growth at the global level is estimated to be 3.4 percent and trade, that is, global trade, is predicted to increase by 4.3 percent next year. This is, of course, especially good news for exporting countries such as Türkiye." he said.
Considering the supply-based upward pressure on commodity prices, Yılmaz pointed out that there was a significant increase in energy prices as well as non-energy commodities, especially with the effect of the war, and noted that there was also a slowdown and decline, but the prices were much higher than their previous levels.
"CONFIDENCE IN THE TURKISH LIRA INCREASED"
Stating that when the data is looked at, it is seen that total investment in Türkiye is growing faster than total consumption, Yılmaz said:
"This is particularly important in terms of the quality of growth in Türkiye. According to these data, growth is more balanced, more efficient and more sustainable. This helps us fight inflation with a reasonable level of growth. So, some observers and members of the press ask this issue. In other words, what is the consistency between growth and the anti-inflation program? In this sense, it is clear that we are moving in the right direction and growing. However, this growth is not contrary to our anti-inflation program. It is more balanced and increases both our production capacity and productivity. This means that inflationary problems in various sectors are solved." "It helps us overcome this and at the same time implement our inflation reduction program. It is very clear from this graph that the confidence in the Turkish lira has increased."
Yılmaz reminded that three years ago, foreign currency deposits were very high and Turkish lira deposits were at a very low level, but today they saw that Turkish lira deposits have almost doubled and foreign currency deposits have fallen below 40 percent. Yılmaz said, "Foreign exchange protected deposits, which are a very important contingent liability for the Turkish economy, are now at zero level. In other words, they have been completely eliminated, and we have achieved this in a smooth process, without harming financial markets or financial stability." he said.
Yılmaz emphasized that one of the most important achievements achieved in this three-year period was the elimination of this conditional liability and the strengthening of the position of the Turkish lira, and said, "When we look at this strong increase, we actually see another very important development in our reserves. In May 2023, total reserves, that is, gross reserves, were 98.5 billion US dollars. Today, as of August 28, 2026, our reserves increased to 188.2 billion dollars, that is, an increase of almost 90 billion dollars in our reserves." he said.
Yılmaz pointed out that this is a very important development and that it took place despite the decline in gold prices in recent months.
"THE RATIO OF COMPANY DEBT TO GDP IS QUITE REASONABLE"
Emphasizing that there is a significant increase in reserves, Yılmaz continued his words as follows:
"When we look at the CDS as a risk indicator, it was over 700 points in May 2023 and is currently below 220. In other words, there is a big decrease in our risk premiums, and this is also very important in terms of borrowing costs for both the public sector and the private sector, especially when it comes to foreign currency loans. In other words, the ratio of our public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is around 20 percent. The exact figure is 23.9 percent, It is close to 24 percent of our GDP, whereas this rate is almost 80 percent in developing economies and over 100 percent in developed economies. In Türkiye, this rate is about 10 percent, in emerging markets it is about 46 percent and in developed economies it is almost 68 percent.
The ratio of corporate debt to GDP in Türkiye is also quite reasonable. This rate is 38.9 percent in Türkiye, 52.4 percent in developing markets and almost 90 percent in developed economies. This is a very important issue, as many countries have accumulated debt following epidemics, and this poses a significant constraint on their ability to implement certain policies. Türkiye will have a significant advantage in these global conditions, given our debt indicators. "These are the figures for 2025."
Yılmaz, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek and Presidential Strategy and Budget President İbrahim Şenel met with foreign press members at the Presidential Complex within the scope of the "Medium Term Program International Media Meeting" for the 2027-2029 period.
Giving information to journalists about the Medium Term Program (MTP) in the program, Yılmaz stated that considering the years 2024 and 2025, the current account deficit is below 2 percent.
Pointing out that the current account balance and the ratio of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are below historical averages, Yılmaz said, "According to the latest data, a temporary increase is observed in our current account deficit this year. This figure is a negative value of 2.3 percent. However, most of this increase is due to the impact of the war in our region. Therefore, this is a temporary increase in the current account deficit and not a structural deterioration. "Our current account deficit is well below our historical averages and we believe it will continue like this," he said.
Looking at general inflation, Yılmaz stated that they have made significant progress in the fight against inflation, which is the main priority of the program, and said that inflation, which rose to 75.5 percent in May 2024, entered a significant downward trend as a result of the policies implemented.
Stating that this strong downward trend has stopped temporarily due to the pressures on the supply side and is at the level of 31.5 percent as of August 2026, Yılmaz said, "We expect inflation to enter a downward trend again in the last quarter of 2026 and remain at 28.4 percent at the end of the year." he said.
"WE EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND TO EMBRACE AGAIN"
Stating that they observed that the index created from food, fuel, natural gas and transportation services showed a significant increase with the influence of developments around the world, Yılmaz stated that these items constitute 34.5 percent of the total Consumer Price Index basket, and that the increase in energy and commodity prices, combined with the pressures on transportation costs and food prices, accelerated the price movements in this group.
Stating that the decline in the basic trend of inflation continues when these items directly affected by the war are excluded, Yılmaz said, "Therefore, current data show that the recent slowdown in the decline in general inflation is not due to the basic dynamics of the program, but to the additional price pressures arising from the items that are directly affected by the war and have a significant weight in the CPI basket." he said.
Stating that they expect the downward trend in inflation to become evident again with the support of a tight and coordinated policy framework as the impact of supply shocks decreases, Yılmaz said that when the budget deficits are looked at, despite the earthquake and temporary expenditures related to the earthquake, the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP remains at quite reasonable levels.
"WE PROJECT THAT OUR NATIONAL INCOME WILL EXCEED 1.8 TRILLION DOLLARS"
Explaining that earthquake-related expenditures play an important role in budget deficits, but the share of earthquake expenditures in the budget has decreased over time, Yılmaz noted that although there is a decreasing trend, the financial burden of these additional expenditures will continue to remain on the agenda for a while.
Underlining that they carried out the program with determination and a holistic approach, in line with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's vision and strong political leadership, Yılmaz said:
"In this process, we have made significant progress in achieving a significant decrease in inflation, strengthening the external balance, increasing reserves and reinforcing financial resilience, while maintaining stability and achieving balanced growth. As a matter of fact, we predict that by the end of 2026, our national income will exceed 1.8 trillion dollars and per capita national income will approach the level of 20 thousand US dollars for the first time. It is expected to remain above this threshold for the next two years.
Our main goal is to make price stability permanent by reducing inflation to single-digit levels and to maintain our financial discipline uncompromisingly. We believe that we have already achieved financial discipline. However, we must continue our work on this issue and further strengthen the discipline. In order to ensure that growth reflects more strongly on all segments of society, we will implement policies that will ease the burdens on us and reduce the pressures on the workforce. "We will continue our policies to strengthen the security of supply of critical inputs, especially considering global conditions."
Yılmaz emphasized that, first of all, the impact of structural reforms should be strengthened by increasing the durability of production units, thus increasing efficiency and competitiveness.
"THERE IS A VERY CLEAR DECLINE IN THE RISK PERCEPTION OF OUR ECONOMY"
Referring to the significant decrease in the country risk premium, Yılmaz said, "There is a clear decrease in the risk perception regarding our economy. Gross international reserves have increased. Overall inflation has fallen, but when you consider the progress that has been made, there is significant progress. "Still, we need to fight inflation in the coming period to reach single-digit figures."
Emphasizing that the risk perception has decreased and external buffers are stronger than in the past, Yılmaz stated that inflation is at a much lower level than three years ago, and financial stability has been strengthened by reducing contingent liabilities.
"WE BUILT OVP ON OUR PAST ACHIEVEMENTS"
Yılmaz made the following evaluation regarding the new MTP:
"Now, our main goal with this program is to transform this stability into sustainable growth and productivity, based on this macroeconomic stability. This is our main framework. When you look at the growth figures, 2026-2029 Average
