(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Taiwan's 2026 "nine-in-one" local elections are one and a half months away, and the most watched Taipei mayoral election has entered a fierce stage. The gap between Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang and Kuomintang candidate and current Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan appears to be narrowing.
According to the latest poll released by Taiwan media TVBS Polling Center on October 8, Jiang Wanan’s support was 49%, and Shen Boyang’s was 41%. Compared with the May survey by the same agency, the gap between the two has narrowed significantly from 28 percentage points to 8 percentage points.
Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, a well-known scholar engaged in Taiwan election research and honorary chair professor at Tsinghua University, analyzed in September that there is "almost no suspense" about Chiang Wanan's re-election. As Shen Boyang's poll support and political voice rise, the election situation seems to be changing. Taiwanese media and Shen Boyang's campaign team have also described this political whirlwind as an "ocean current."
When Shen Boyang held a rally to launch his campaign headquarters in early October, the organizer claimed that 120,000 people showed up to support him. In addition to President Lai Ching-te, Vice President Hsiao Meiqin, former President Tsai Ing-wen and other important DPP politicians, well-known host Tsai Kang-yong was also captured on camera and appeared on stage, triggering heated discussions on the Internet.
In a recent interview with Taiwanese media, Jiang Wanan said frankly: "This is the most intense election I have ever faced."
How do "ocean currents" rise?
“I believe that when the DPP originally nominated him (Shen Boyang), they didn’t know that he could turn the election like this.” Yan Weiting, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Politics of the Academia Sinica in Taiwan, told DW.
Shen Boyang, 44, was born and raised in Taipei. Like Jiang Wanan, he has elite academic qualifications and a background in the United States. He returned to Taiwan to teach in 2017, and later participated in the establishment of the "Taiwan Democracy Laboratory" and "Black Bear Academy", focusing on information warfare and civil defense issues. He did not enter politics until 2023, and the following year he was elected as a non-district legislator of the party. He is listed as a "Taiwan independence die-hard" and wanted by Beijing. He has a clear image of "resisting China and safeguarding Taiwan" and is also one of the core figures in the Democratic Progressive Party who will actively participate in the "general recall" in 2025.
Compared with Chiang Wanan, who entered the political arena in 2015 and has the aura of "the fourth generation of the Chiang family", Shen Boyang does not have rich political experience and is not well-known at the grassroots level. In addition, Taipei's political structure has long been "blue over green". Since the resumption of municipal elections in 1994, the DPP has only won once in 1994, relying on Chen Shui-bian in the context of the blue camp split.
The outside world was not initially optimistic about Shen Boyang's challenge to Chiang Wanan. Even before he officially announced his candidacy, the Taiwan media "United Daily News" had already reported and observed that Shen Boyang's candidacy may bring negative political benefits to the DPP, and used the word "ocean current" to describe it negatively.
The report quoted an unnamed person from the blue camp as saying: Shen Boyang "reminds voters of last year's general recall", "his frequent golden sentences can easily trigger bipolar emotions", and "we are optimistic that he will buck the trend and impact the Democratic Progressive Party's election. This 'ocean current' will become a new term in Taiwanese politics."
However, in mid-August, Shen Boyang went to Ningxia Night Market to sweep the streets and solicit votes, which began to attract crowds. Supporters also came to the scene with self-made "Ocean Current" propaganda. Some observers believe that this is the time when the "ocean current" took shape, and this term is increasingly used to describe the political whirlwind brought about by Shen Boyang in a positive way.
"Judging from the strategic goals set when nominating him, I think they have actually been achieved." Yan Weiting is one of more than 1,000 Taiwanese scholars who signed a petition to support Shen Boyang in this election. She believes that the strategic goal set by the DPP at the beginning was more to hope that Shen Boyang would contain Jiang Wanan in Taipei and not go to other counties and cities to assist the election of blue camp candidates, and to drive the DPP's election in the city council. The rise of "Ocean Current" is an "unexpected gain" for the DPP.
Yan Weiting analyzed the reasons behind it and pointed out that in addition to his personal charm, Shen Boyang emphasized policy discussions, demonstrated planning and execution capabilities, calmly dealt with the media, and even accepted exclusive interviews with traditional pro-blue media to break through the stratosphere. It can be seen that Shen Boyang projected voters' "imagination of new politics" and also reflected the public's dissatisfaction with the current mayor's governance effectiveness.
In the past few months, the Taipei mayoral election campaign has extended to a number of municipal issues, including the free nutritious lunch policy, food safety concerns, successive cases of sexual violence and abuse of children, the city government's removal and pruning of road trees, inappropriate police raids on gay bars and discriminatory words and deeds, drug prevention and drug abuse, etc.
Shen Boyang's camp used these issues to question the city government's governance capabilities, while Jiang Wanan's team refuted the accusations as untrue and emphasized that relevant policies or cases have already been handled.
Zhang Junhao, director of the Department of Politics at Tunghai University, analyzed to DW that Jiang Wanan and Shen Boyang, as incumbents and challengers, have a hot and cold approach to issues. He pointed out that as Chiang Wanan is the current mayor and Taipei's electoral structure is "blue than green", he does not need to heat up the election to maintain his perceived advantage. In contrast, Shen Boyang has successively promoted many issues, and as Taipei is a metropolitan constituency, emergent issues are prone to generate a lot of discussion on the Internet.
"He (Shen Boyang) is far stronger than Jiang Wanan on the so-called 'air war' issue." Zhang Junhao pointed out that Shen Boyang "has a very high degree of professionalism" in terms of public opinion attack and defense and issue setting on social networks. Relying on the "air combat" advantage and "ocean current" to present an image of being young and fluent in English, it will bring a certain degree of freshness to Taipei's urban voters.
At the same time, after Chiang Wanan has been in power for four years, "many people believe that he has not done much in the municipal administration, and has not significantly changed Taipei City." Now, municipal performance will face "a very large degree of testing."
During this election campaign, Chiang Wanan repeatedly emphasized his achievements during his tenure, including: the opening of the Taipei Arena, which boosted the economy of concerts and sports events; the successful bid for Huida’s overseas headquarters to be located in Taipei; and the promotion of the student nutrition supplement policy of “drinking fresh milk for all students.” He recently announced without warning that he would relocate Taipei Songshan Airport and transform about 300 hectares of land into an AI industrial park, residences and parks. This is Chiang Wanan's most hotly debated political opinion.
Shen Boyang proposed five major visions. The most discussed policies include: setting up sports stations, connecting surrounding mountain trails to build Taipei into Asia's number one mountaineering city, replacing the "Twin Cities Forum" between Taipei and Shanghai with the "Infinite City Forum", expanding international city exchanges, promoting the "Old House Life Extension Plan", planning and setting up a "night mayor", etc.
What are the key highlights of the election campaign?
"At present, his (Jiang Wanan) probability of winning is relatively high." Yan Weiting said that Jiang Wanan still has a leading advantage, but there are still more than 50 days left in the election, and the result is still difficult to say. However, judging from the poll trends, the "ocean current" has had a basic impact on Jiang Wanan. It depends on "where the bleeding will be stopped in the end."
"If (Jiang Wanan) only wins within 10% in the end, the impact on him will already be quite big," she said.
Zhang Junhao pointed out that the most worthy of observation are the median voters.
"With support for blue and green shrinking, will these middle voters who hate blue and green and don't want to vote in the first place want to come out to vote? Or can the 'Ocean Current' allow more traditional DPP supporters to finally come out to vote, thereby increasing the overall turnout? I think this is a very important piece in the final election."
Zhang Junhao further explained that many median voters are "negative voters", that is, voters who hate both blue and green, or support the other camp in order to oppose a certain political party or candidate. In the past, Shen Boyang had a clear image of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan." Although he changed a lot after entering the election campaign and tried to attract more middle voters, it seems that "many middle voters have not been able to escape his original image."
As for how far the political voice of "Ocean Current" can be converted into votes? Zhang Junhao holds a reserved view, believing that the level of online voice and issues is still increasing and remains to be seen.
Liu Zhaolong, a professor at the Department of Public Affairs and Civic Education at Changhua Normal University, pointed out to Taiwanese media TVBS that turnout is another key indicator.
He said that judging from the turnout in previous Taipei mayoral elections, "As long as the turnout remains at around 67%, it will enter the KMT's sweet zone; otherwise, it will be beneficial to the DPP. When Chen Shui-bian was elected in 1994, the turnout was as high as 78%. The hotter the election, the more beneficial it will be to the DPP."
The turnout rate for the 2022 Taipei mayoral election was 67.70%, with Chiang Wanan winning 42.29%. In comparison, Ma Ying-jeou and Hao Longbin, both members of the Kuomintang, received more than half of the votes when they were elected and re-elected as mayor of Taipei.
Not just a battle for the capital
This year's local elections are seen as a midterm review of President Lai Ching-te and a precursor to the 2028 presidential election. The results of the Taipei mayoral election will be one of the key indicators.
Zhang Junhao said that for Jiang Wanan, "If he can be successfully elected this time, it will certainly give him a lot of confidence to compete for the presidential candidate within the Kuomintang next time; however, if he chooses very poorly in this election, or is unable to be re-elected, it will certainly affect his future status within the party."
In addition, whether the "ocean current" effect will affect the elections in other counties and cities has attracted special attention.
Yan Weiting observed that the "ocean current" not only appeared in Taipei, but also helped boost the DPP's electoral support in other counties and cities. "Assuming he comes from New Taipei, he has no way to vote for Shen Boyang, but he will vote for Su Qiaohui when he returns home. Or if he comes from Taoyuan, he will vote for Huang Shijie when he returns home. I think the spillover effect is actually clear."
Zhang Junhao also made similar observations. For example, he said that the Keelung and New Taipei elections are showing five waves, and all polls are very close. However, it can be seen that the "ocean current" has a tendency to drive the enthusiasm of voters in cities around Taipei. However, "so far, it seems that (the ocean current) may have a greater influence on the surrounding areas than in Taipei City."
