A diplomatic crisis and military escalation between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt

A diplomatic crisis broke out between Ethiopia and Eritrea on Thursday evening, as the two sides exchanged accusations of fueling internal conflicts, in light of the continuing fighting in the Ethiopian Tigray region.

Long-standing tensions between the two neighbors have reached a critical stage following the outbreak of violent clashes last week between Ethiopian forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, raising fears of a renewal of the devastating civil war that took place between 2020 and 2022 and claimed the lives of an estimated 600,000 people.

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​supporting Tigray People's Liberation Front rebels.

Addis Ababa announced that it would expel ten Eritrean diplomats who “pose a direct threat to Ethiopian national security,” and that it would close its embassy in Asmara.

The Eritrean Foreign Ministry responded that it had “no choice but to respond in kind.”

Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebre Meskel also told Reuters that Ethiopia's expulsion of all Eritrean diplomats effectively means closing the Eritrean embassy in Addis Ababa.

Since the resumption of fierce fighting in northern Ethiopia last week, hundreds have been killed and injured. The Tigray People's Liberation Front, which controls the Tigray region, launched attacks inside the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, with the support of local militias.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has not yet commented on the crisis, is scheduled to be sworn in for a new term, on Monday, after his victory in the elections that took place in June. However, he faces a conflict on multiple fronts, after several armed groups formed an alliance against him, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front.

It is noteworthy that Eritrea gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, and the two countries fought a border war between 1998 and 2000.

However, their relations improved when Abiy took power in 2018, and they even fought together against Tigray forces during the recent civil war.

After that, relations deteriorated sharply; Eritrea expressed fears that Ethiopia, which lacks a sea port, intends to invade it and seize access to the Red Sea.

The Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, on Thursday, that Ethiopia “has been adopting a continuous hostile approach against Eritrea for three years, seeking to achieve - the necessity of obtaining a sovereign access to the sea - by invading sovereign Eritrean ports and coastal areas.”

The crisis between Ethiopia and Eritrea coincided with the escalation of tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian News Agency reported that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the Egyptian diplomat Ahmed Muharram Ahmed persona non grata, and informed his country’s embassy in Addis Ababa that he must leave Ethiopian territory within 48 hours.

On the other hand, Egyptian media reported from an official Egyptian source that, based on the application of the principle of reciprocity, the advisor to the Ethiopian embassy in Cairo was considered persona non grata, and the Egyptian authorities gave him 48 hours to leave the country.

The source described to the semi-official Cairo News Channel the Ethiopian move against the Egyptian diplomat as “unfortunate” and unjustified, stressing that Egypt always refuses to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.

The decision came days after the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the opposition armed political coalition that seeks to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front.

An Egyptian diplomatic source denied these accusations to the BBC earlier, saying that Cairo does not interfere in the Ethiopian internal crisis that Addis Ababa must address instead of shifting its responsibility to external parties.

Relations between Ethiopia and Egypt have been witnessing tension for years against the backdrop of Addis Ababa's construction of the Renaissance Dam on the course of the Nile River, while Egypt has strengthened its relations with Eritrea during the past few months.

Egypt and Sudan are demanding a binding legal agreement regulating the operation of the dam, especially during periods of drought, in addition to a clear mechanism for exchanging data, while Ethiopia considers the dam an essential national project for producing electricity and supporting development, stressing that it does not aim to harm the two downstream countries.

The three countries rely on a declaration of principles signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan in 2015 to regulate cooperation on the dam.

The African Union Commission expressed its deep concern about the escalation of tension between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt, calling on all parties to exercise the utmost restraint and avoid any steps that would increase tension.

The Commission stressed the importance of promoting dialogue and diplomatic means in dealing with differences, thus contributing to maintaining stability and security in the region.

At the field level, an explosion that occurred at night at the headquarters of the Ethiopian National Defense Force in the capital, Addis Ababa, raised fears that the ongoing conflict between the army and the opposition would extend to the capital for the first time.

Diplomatic and security sources confirmed the explosion, but were unable to determine its cause or the party responsible for it, nor did they provide any figures regarding human losses.

The National Intelligence Service banned the use of drones over Addis Ababa, while the pro-government “Tigray Peace Forces” announced that they had seized drone frames and batteries from forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

It was not known before that opposition forces used armed drones, but there is increasing evidence that they possess some capabilities in this field.

A source related to the opposition coalition told Reuters that the coalition carried out several attacks with drones in Addis Ababa, some of which targeted the army headquarters.

If this news is confirmed, this will be the first drone attack launched by anti-government forces on Addis Ababa, which is hundreds of kilometers away from the front lines in the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

Three diplomatic sources confirmed to Reuters - who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter - that the explosions had occurred, while eyewitnesses reported that there was no apparent damage near the military base.