Cairo = Yonhap News) Correspondent Kim Sang-hoon = With the counting of votes in the Israeli general election completed and the distribution of seats for each party in the next parliament (Knesset) outlined, negotiations to form a coalition government are expected to begin in earnest.
According to the final vote count released by the Israeli Election Commission on the 30th (local time), the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 of the 120 Knesset (parliament) seats.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc, which was expected to have an advantage in exit polls, secured 48 seats, and the Arab party, which benefited from the highest voter turnout in about 30 years, secured 19 seats, more than expected.
Both the pro-Netanyahu bloc and the anti-Netanyahu bloc failed to secure a majority of 61 seats, making the future direction of the next prime minister unclear.
Coalition negotiations are expected to be a difficult road for both current Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is seeking to return to power, and his powerful opponent, former Israeli Army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
While both sides failed to secure a single majority, Arab political parties, who swept 19 seats, the largest ever, held the decisive casting vote that would determine the direction of the political situation.
In order to complete a coalition government, painful compromises with Arab political parties are inevitable, while enduring opposition from core supporters.
Based on the final vote count results, we look at the scenario for coalition formation negotiations.
◇ Eisenkot-Arab political parties solidarity... “The simplest and most dangerous choice”
Mathematically, the clearest breakthrough is for the Eisenkot camp to join hands with Arab parties to form a strong anti-Netanyahu coalition with 67 seats. It is also possible for an Arab party to support a minority government from outside without directly participating in the coalition government.
Yair Golan, leader of the Democratic Party, a member of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, called for solidarity with the Arab community from the day the vote count results were announced.
In an article published on the same day in the daily Haaretz, he emphasized that “conditional citizens do not exist in the democratic nation of Israel,” and that “a vote cast by an Arab citizen has exactly the same value as a vote by a Jewish citizen.”
He continued, “Any member of Congress elected through legal and democratic elections is a legitimate member of our political system,” and emphasized, “A person who believes in democracy cannot silence the voices of hundreds of thousands of citizens because of their background or name.”
Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the second-in-command of the centrist political party Beyahad (Together), said, "We won, but it was a decision, not a knockout," and drew a line, saying, "The opposition bloc will mobilize all its capabilities to form a coalition, but the process will be difficult and success is not guaranteed."
“Therefore, we must ask the Israeli people for one thing that is difficult to ask: patience,” he said.
The problem is political risk. Arab citizens, who make up 20% of Israel's population, are Palestinians who remained in Israel during the 1948 founding war.
They have deep ties to the Palestinian armed faction and residents, and many Jewish Israelis are extremely wary of them.
In fact, Arab political parties participated in the 'Rainbow Coalition' in 2021, in which left-wing, right-wing, and centrist parties united under the anti-Netanyahu banner. However, the coalition government collapsed within a year.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is already attacking the possibility of such solidarity, calling it “a betrayal of Jewish national identity and a security threat.”
◇ Netanyahu-Eisenkot ‘grand coalition’… “Will the burden of breaking promises be overcome?”
There is also talk of Prime Minister Netanyahu forming a 'unity government' by persuading Eisenkot and his right-wing allies.
In this case, Netanyahu's camp will secure a stable majority of 67 seats, and not only Arab parties but also ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish forces will be pushed into the opposition.
This means that we will gain momentum to quickly pursue numerous pending issues, such as the controversy over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions and economic recovery.
However, to achieve this, we must endure enormous political fallout.
The Eisenkot camp has declared that it will never compromise with Netanyahu, citing responsibility for the security failure following Hamas' surprise attack on October 7, 2023 and attempts to neutralize the judiciary.
Prime Minister Netanyahu also faces the fatal dilemma of having to eliminate on his own the far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies who have supported him through various crises, including the Hamas war.
◇ Netanyahu’s attack on the ‘weak link in the opposition’… All-out effort to secure opposition votes
There is also the possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu can exploit weaknesses within the opposition bloc and rally breakaway votes.
Local media reported that immediately after the announcement of the vote counting results, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who leads the far-right devout Zionist party, and began preparing countermeasures.
The main targets of the pro-Netanyahu bloc are right-wing party leaders within the anti-Netanyahu bloc, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman.
Those with strong nationalist tendencies have something in common: they are extremely reluctant to form alliances with Arab political parties.
However, deep feelings have developed between them and Prime Minister Netanyahu for several years, and the ultra-Orthodox faction, which is Prime Minister Netanyahu's core support base, is also strongly opposed to exemption from military service, making the calculation complicated.
On the other hand, the prevailing analysis is that the probability of a defection to Eisenkot from the Likud Party or the extreme right wing, which is Prime Minister Netanyahu's solid support base, is extremely low.
◇ Worst case scenario ‘re-election’… The picture Netanyahu wants
If both camps fail to form a coalition, Israel will have to face the judgment of voters again early next year.
This could be a fatal blow to the opposition party, which had created a stir under the anti-Netanyahu banner.
Although this general election was greatly enjoyed by a large number of overseas voters returning home, it is difficult to guarantee their re-participation in the re-election.
Conversely, it could be a golden opportunity for Prime Minister Netanyahu to buy time and rally his supporters. There is a possibility that the votes of a small right-wing party, which was forced to resign due to its failure to enter the National Assembly, will shift towards a large far-right party, strengthening the prime minister's position.
Israel suffered a similar political deadlock in 2019, holding general elections as many as five times in three and a half years.
