The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but toughened its tone on inflation risks, expecting the rate of price increases to exceed 4 percent early next year, and warning that continued conflict in the Middle East and turmoil in energy prices for a prolonged period could prompt it to tighten monetary policy again.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by 6 votes to 3 to keep the interest rate at 3.75 percent, while three members supported raising it to 4 percent, in line with the average expectations of economists in a Reuters poll.
But the minutes of the meeting showed a more stringent shift in the bank’s tone, with increasing risks surrounding the path of inflation, especially in light of the continued rise in global energy costs.
Conservative Andrew Bailey said: “So far, rising global energy costs have had a limited impact on the setting of prices and wages in the UK. “But the longer these fluctuations persist, the greater their impact on inflation, and the more likely we will need to raise the bank’s policy rate to ensure that inflation returns to our target level of 2 percent.”
The bank explained that inflation risks have tended to rise more since the publication of its latest economic forecasts in July, noting that energy price movements since then resemble a “negative” scenario that entails the risk of inflation consolidation.
Although there are no signs yet of continuing pressures from the labor market or companies' pricing policies, the bank said that these risks are increasing.
Inflation is heading to 4%
The Bank of England raised its estimate for British economic growth in the third quarter to 0.4 percent, from 0.1 percent in its previous forecast. But on the other hand, he expected inflation to “now exceed the 4 percent barrier slightly” by early 2027, compared to a previous expectation that the peak of inflation would reach 3.2 percent in late 2026.
The inflation rate reached 3.1 percent in August, remaining above the bank's target of 2 percent, while policymakers tightened their tone about the risks of continued price pressures.
The bank said: “Given the time period it takes for the effects of the second round (of inflation) to appear, it was not appropriate to wait long to obtain evidence of these effects before taking monetary policy measures.”
Chief Economist Hugh Bell and external members of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Green and Catherine Mann again voted in favor of raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.
On the other hand, Bailey and his deputies Sarah Breeden, Claire Lombardelli and Dave Ramsden indicated, in the minutes of the meeting, the possibility of raising the base interest rate in the future if economic developments required it.
Change in bond plan
In conjunction with the interest rate decision, the Bank of England made a major change in its approach to reducing its holdings of British government bonds, which had accumulated during previous periods of monetary stimulus.
The Monetary Policy Committee announced that it aims to reduce its holdings of government bonds held for monetary policy purposes to zero by 2034, while retaining some of the very long-term bonds that the bank has purchased to support the issuance of banknotes.
In a shift from the previous approach based on active selling of bonds in the market, the bank decided to hold bonds maturing before 2035 until their maturity date, while it will study the possibility of selling bonds maturing between 2035 and 2049 to the government.
The bank is scheduled to announce its plans regarding these bonds before next April, while it has decided at the present time to suspend all active sales of government bonds in the market.
Chinese President Xi Jinping called for making his country's advanced manufacturing sector "bigger and stronger" and strengthening control over key industrial supply chains, in the latest indication of Beijing's commitment to high-tech manufacturing as an engine of growth and a tool for promoting technological self-sufficiency.
In statements during the National Conference on Advanced Manufacturing in Beijing this week, Xi said that China will continue to expand and strengthen advanced manufacturing, while increasing the country's ability to independently control industry chains, according to what was reported by the Xinhua News Agency, Thursday.
He also called for accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone, stressing that China has made great progress in its transformation into an industrial power, with improved innovation and competitiveness in the advanced manufacturing sectors.
Xi's statements reflect a continuing shift in the distribution of resources within the world's second-largest economy. In recent years, Beijing has directed more credit and investments away from the faltering real estate sector and toward advanced industries, in an attempt to support growth and reduce dependence on foreign technology.
Chinese priorities include semiconductors, artificial intelligence, electric cars, batteries, renewable energy and robotics, sectors in which local companies have expanded rapidly and become more present in global markets.
Premier Li Qiang said China should focus on the new generation of intelligent manufacturing, accelerate industrial development processes based on digitization and artificial intelligence, and intensify efforts to develop advanced technologies domestically.
China's industrial expansion comes at a time when fears are growing outside the country about the impact of rising Chinese exports on global competitors. These concerns have been particularly prominent in Europe, where the growth in exports of electric vehicles and other green technology products has heightened debate about the impact of China's industrial capacity on domestic producers.
At home, the strategy to support advanced manufacturing has succeeded in increasing production and innovation in technology sectors, but it has not yet had the same strong impact on household income and consumption, which represent one of the main weaknesses of the Chinese economy.
Therefore, Beijing faces an equation of using new industries to compensate for the decline in traditional engines of growth, most notably real estate and related investments, while at the same time working to enhance domestic demand.
The focus on supply chain control adds an additional dimension to the strategy. China seeks to increase its ability to produce key components and technologies locally and reduce the exposure of its industrial sector to external disturbances.
Xi and Li's statements indicate that advanced manufacturing will remain a major focus of Chinese economic policy during the next phase, with increased reliance on innovation, artificial intelligence, and local technology to raise productivity and support growth, in parallel with Beijing's attempt to manage the trade repercussions resulting from the rapid expansion of its industrial exports.
At a time when the infrastructure of global financial markets is rapidly being reshaped, digital assets are no longer just an experiment to prove the feasibility of Blockchain technology. Rather, they have begun to enter the stage of institutional application, driven by the development of regulatory frameworks, the growth of digital money solutions, and the increasing interest of major investment institutions in tokenizing assets and developing new mechanisms for settlement and liquidity management.
In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Angus Fletcher, head of global digital solutions at State Street, believes that digital assets have gone beyond the stage of proving the feasibility of technology to the stage of redesigning work mechanisms in financial markets, driven by the development of regulatory frameworks, the growth of digital money solutions, and the increasing participation of major investment institutions.
Fletcher said that the convergence between digital assets, digital money, and artificial intelligence technologies paves the way for the emergence of a new operating model for the financial sector, noting that Saudi Arabia has a unique opportunity to build a modern financial structure that benefits from these transformations within the goals of “Vision 2030.”
From technical experiments to actual application
Fletcher explained that financial institutions are no longer focusing on blockchain trials and proving that assets can be tokenized, but rather are looking to employ these technologies to improve capital markets, investment and settlement processes, liquidity management, and cross-border activities.
He added that recent years have witnessed important developments represented in the emergence of clearer regulatory frameworks, the growth of digital money solutions, the launch of tokenized investment products, in addition to the increased participation of financial institutions in this field.
Asset tokenization is a driver for infrastructure development
Fletcher believes that tokenization of assets does not represent the ultimate goal in itself, but rather is a catalyst for developing the infrastructure of financial markets.
He said that the real value lies in making assets more efficient and useful by improving settlement processes, collateral management, distribution and liquidity, noting that tokenized money market funds, government securities and private assets are among the most prominent categories of candidates for wider adoption in the coming years.
Faster payments and more efficient capital flows
He pointed out that digital money, including stable currencies and tokenized deposits, could contribute to integrating the movement of assets, cash, and data into a more integrated system compared to the current financial system.
He added that this development may lead to increasing the efficiency of cross-border investment flows, reducing retained liquidity, and improving the movement of guarantees between different markets, pointing out that artificial intelligence will play an increasingly important role in managing liquidity and improving settlement and financing decisions in a financial environment that relies more on real time.
Organizational and operational challenges
Regarding the challenges facing the sector, Fletcher said that the industry still needs greater regulatory consistency, enhanced interoperability between different market infrastructures, as well as the development of operating models capable of accommodating digital assets on a broad institutional scale.
He explained that many institutions still rely on systems and infrastructure designed for a different financial era, which limits taking full advantage of the benefits of coding.
He added that artificial intelligence can help overcome some of these obstacles by automating matching processes, simplifying operational procedures, and improving risk management and compliance requirements.
Organization is the basis of trust
The head of global digital solutions at State Street stressed that regulatory frameworks represent a key factor in enhancing the confidence of institutional investors.
He said that financial institutions are not looking for a less regulated environment, but rather for clear rules that provide legal certainty, investor protection, and operational flexibility, noting that regulatory regulations give institutions the confidence necessary to move from the pilot projects stage to the actual operation stage.
Three layers to digital market growth
Fletcher explained that markets need three main layers of infrastructure to support the next phase of growth. The first layer is digital money, including tokenized deposits, regulated stablecoins, and other forms of digital cash used for settlement.
The second layer includes identity systems, governance, compliance, cybersecurity, and operational resilience.
He added that the third layer is the “intelligence layer,” which relies on artificial intelligence techniques to improve liquidity and guarantee management, monitor risks, and increase operational efficiency.
Saudi Arabia opportunities
Regarding Saudi Arabia, Fletcher said that the Kingdom has a unique opportunity to build a modern financial infrastructure within the goals of “Vision 2030,” benefiting from its ability to integrate modern technologies and digital financial services into its long-term plans.
He added that the biggest opportunities available to the Kingdom are to tokenize investment funds and private markets, develop digital money solutions, and enhance the movement of guarantees and cross-border investment flows.
He also pointed out that financial services supported by artificial intelligence could contribute to strengthening Saudi Arabia’s position as a more efficient and interconnected global financial center.
A more interconnected financial system
Fletcher expects that the separation between traditional and digital finance will gradually decline over the next five to ten years, with the emergence of a more interconnected financial system that operates across multiple asset classes, different forms of money, and diverse settlement models.
He said that markets will become more connected, programmable and dynamic, while the importance of artificial intelligence will increase in supporting decision-making and managing the increasing complexity in markets.
He concluded by saying that tokenizing assets will help link assets, while digital money will link financial value, and artificial intelligence will enhance the decision-making process, accelerating the emergence of a more efficient and interconnected global financial system.
