Danish intelligence warns of potential Russian attack on NATO countries

What is the report about?

The defense intelligence service in Denmark, FE, has released a new threat assessment of Russia. It contains grim conclusions: Russia is under more pressure than ever before in the war against Ukraine. Zelensky's robots and drones are reaching deep into Russia, the economy is collapsing, and Russian men are being killed or maimed without the armed forces making much progress on the battlefield. Western support for Ukraine remains strong.

Therefore, the Danish intelligence service assesses that the Putin regime wants to shake up the playing field. The next step: a potential attack on a NATO country in the coming months.

How could such an attack be carried out?

The Danes are detailed. In the past, Western intelligence services have spoken of hybrid attacks and sabotage against arms deliveries to Ukraine. Now FE says that the sabotage attacks could become more brutal, with great risk to many people's lives. But the threat assessment also talks about direct attacks against one or more NATO countries. The risk is assessed as "low but growing" - and FE paints several scenarios:

• A false flag operation. For example, that Russia sends a Ukrainian drone that detonates a target in a NATO country.

• An attack with Russian robots or drones. Where Russia then claims that everything happened because Ukraine interfered with the Russian weapon, so it went wrong.

• A "little green men" operation in a NATO country bordering Russia. The term was coined when Russia took over Crimea. Then soldiers appeared without insignia showing which country they belonged to, something that would create confusion and an opportunity for Russia to deny its initial involvement. FE points out that Russia would first build up forces at the border in order to meet a response from NATO.

What is NATO doing to stop it?

One way is to go out with the warnings broadly, as Denmark is now doing. It is a signal to Russia that the defense alliance sees what can happen, and is prepared for it. FE assesses that Russia will only attack if the regime believes that NATO will not respond collectively - and there will be war. Here, the Russian analysis of the United States is decisive. The risk increases if Russia does not believe that the US is standing up for Europe. The chairman of NATO's military committee, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, has said the alliance is ready if Russia escalates.

The bottom line is that the security situation has further deteriorated and is putting NATO's deterrence capabilities to the test.