A few days before the second round, a survey carried out by Datafolha shows that the main motivation declared by voters who intend to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for president is the desire for change and alternation of power. The portion of the electorate that opts for President Lula (PT) says it is motivated by social protection and the performance and legacy of the PT member.
For the survey, Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people in 153 municipalities across Brazil on Tuesday (13) and Wednesday (14). The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The registration with the Electoral Court is BR-00466/2026.
The institute's interviewers presented the voters of both candidates with the same list of possible reasons to explain the option for one of the candidates in the second round, which will be held on the 25th. Participants were able to choose more than one reason.
The change and alternation of power were cited by 41% of those who declared their vote for Flávio, who in the latest Datafolha survey scored 51% of valid votes against 49% for the president. Next, the reasons for electing the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) include rejection of Lula and the PT (31%), the economy and cost of living (16%), and the proposals and quality of the candidate (15%).
The reasons cited find support in the campaign carried out by the senator from Rio de Janeiro: Flávio has been betting on the motto of change, trying to surf on anti-PTism and attacking the Lula government for its management of the economy.
In an interview with TV Globo this Friday (16), for example, Flávio said that "Brazil has already chosen change", saying that he intends to govern only for one term and repeating his proposal to end re-election — without making it clear whether this would imply extending his own period as President.
Other reasons that explain the vote for Flávio, according to voters interviewed by Datafolha, are performance and legacy (14%), values, ideology and democracy (13%), integrity and the issue of corruption (11%) and public services and security (10%). 12% of those interviewed in this segment say they have no specific reason to choose the senator — a figure that goes up to 16% among those who earn less than two minimum wages.
The change and alternation of power are important, especially for Flávio's voters who earn more than five minimum wages. In this sample, 47% cite this reason, compared to 38% of those who earn less than two.
The change is less important for the senator's younger voters. 24% cite this reason — most relevant to them are the candidate's proposals and qualities, a reason cited by 31% of respondents aged 16 to 24.
When voters who declare their vote for President Lula are asked about the motivation for their choice, the most important reason is social protection and class. 48% of those interviewed by Datafolha cited this reason — a figure that reaches 52% among voters with primary education and 59% among evangelicals.
In the final stretch of the election, the president's campaign is betting on increasing rejection of Flávio by raising the possibility of cuts in social benefits and the end of real increases in pensions and the minimum wage.
Projects approved in the final stretch of the electoral race also count as an asset, such as the end of the 6x1 scale. At the PEC promulgation ceremony, on Friday, Lula said: "There is no achievement for the working people that doesn't show up saying: 'this is going to be a setback for the country, this is going to break the companies, this is going to break the economy, this can't work'. This is historic, this is chronic."
Among those who vote for Lula, 22% cite the PT member's performance and legacy, followed by rejection of Flávio (17%), values, ideology and democracy (11%), and the president's proposals and qualities (10%). Another 9% say they have no specific reason. Ideological motivation reaches 20% among Lula voters who are between 16 and 24 years old.
Among the reasons least cited by interviewees who say they vote for the PT candidate are issues on which the PT candidate struggles, such as the economy and the cost of living (6%), integrity and corruption (2%), and, as would be common for an incumbent candidate with a long history in power like the PT, change and alternatives (1%).
Flávio's voters cite social protection and class less (5%) and ties and habits (2%), since the senator has never held a position in the Executive.
Datafolha also asked voters who intend to vote blank or null —6%, according to the institute's latest survey— their motivations for this decision. The main one is the rejection of both candidates, with 37% of those interviewed citing this reason, followed by disbelief and disinterest (19%), distrust, promises and corruption (18%) and lack of options and polarization (12%).
They say they have no specific reason to cancel the vote or vote blank 16%.
