Understanding Super El Niño and Scientifically Responding to Extreme Climate Test

CCTV News (Focus Interview): Recently, the topic "Super strong El Niño has formed" has become a hot search topic. El Niño is a cyclic climate phenomenon that everyone is familiar with and unfamiliar with. Since this year, El Niño has been mentioned repeatedly amid a series of extreme weather and disaster events such as strong typhoons, continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the north and south, and mudslides. Just a few days ago, the National Climate Center officially confirmed that an eastern-type super El Niño event has formed in September this year and will continue to develop. So what exactly is El Niño? How did this super El Niño event form, and how will it affect our production and life?

A super strong El Niño has formed. A few days ago, with the deterministic judgment given by the National Climate Center, the meteorological term El Niño has once again attracted people's attention.

Ren Hongli, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences: "El Niño is actually a foreign term. Academically, it refers to the phenomenon that the sea water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is warmer or higher than usual, which means that the global atmosphere is connected. To put it figuratively, a basin of hot water is placed in a room, and the temperature (room) rises over time, forming a heating effect. It will drive abnormal changes in the atmospheric circulation in the tropical region, because the circulation is connected globally, so the influence spreads from the tropical Pacific to the world."

Normally, the water in the equatorial Pacific is "hot in the west and cold in the east", which means that the water in the west Pacific is warmer and the water in the east Pacific is cold, but this situation can also change. El Niño refers to a climate phenomenon in which sea temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continue to rise, causing abnormal atmospheric circulation.

Chao Qingchen, Director of the National Climate Center: "my country uses the sea surface temperature index in key sea areas of the Central and Eastern Pacific as the basis for El Niño-related judgments. When the sea surface temperature anomaly index, which refers to the difference between the average sea temperature during a certain period and the climate benchmark value for the same period, reaches or exceeds 0.5°C for three consecutive months, it indicates that the El Niño state has been entered."

Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center: "Entering an El Niño state does not mean the formation of an El Niño event. After three months of high temperatures, it may fall in the fourth month. But if it continues for more than five months, the stored heat will increase significantly, and the process of releasing heat in the later period will take longer, and the impact on the global climate will be greater. China and the international community basically define it as more than five months before an event is formed."

The China Meteorological Administration reported at a regular press conference in October that according to monitoring by the National Climate Center, sea temperatures in key areas continued to warm rapidly from May to September this year. Among them, the sliding average value from July to September exceeded 2.5°C, reaching the standard of a super strong El Niño event.

Zhao Junhu: "Since monitoring records began in 1950, a total of 22 El Niño events have occurred in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. This year is the 23rd El Niño event. In history, weak and moderate El Niño events accounted for the majority, strong ones only once, and super strong ones three times. This year The monitoring of El Niño began in May this year, and after five months, it has reached a super strong level. We predict that El Niño will reach its peak in late autumn and early winter this year, and will gradually weaken in the spring and summer of next year.”

As a natural climate phenomenon, El Niño usually occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts about 9 to 12 months. Since the beginning of systematic monitoring records, there have been three super El Niño events in history, which occurred from 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2014 to 2016.

This super El Niño event has the outstanding characteristics of rapid development and strong intensity. The meteorological department predicts that in the next three months, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter, forming the strongest super El Niño event in the history of monitoring records.

Zhao Junhu: "Super El Niño is the strongest level of El Niño. For example, El Niño means that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is like a person having a fever. Then this super El Niño is a high fever. It is 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than the 30-year average. Therefore, super El Niño means that there is a particularly large amount of energy stored, and the impact, intensity, and duration will be longer."

This judgment mutually corroborates the predictions of the World Meteorological Organization. Looking back on the past few months, many countries around the world, including my country, have already felt the impact of this super strong El Niño, such as the frequent occurrence of extreme weather.

This year's flood season in my country was marked by extreme weather, with large rainfall coverage and high local intensity. At the same time, there were too many typhoons, and the impact of wind and rain was long-lasting. There was also the rare event of three typhoons landing at the same place within 50 days. Across the world, many countries are being affected by super strong El Niño. Currently, Panama is experiencing a severe drought. 16 rivers across the country have fallen into severe drought, and this impact is expected to last until May next year.

In addition, some countries in Africa, North America, and Asia are facing risk challenges of high temperatures, droughts, and floods respectively. World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Saulo said that super El Niño will significantly change rainfall, temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns in many regions around the world. The current damage has already been seen, and the risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat are likely to continue to increase. In response to this unusual event, the World Meteorological Organization announced the launch of the largest mobilization in 50 years to coordinate with national meteorological and hydrological departments of various countries to strengthen forecast and early warning services. The real test is yet to come. Historical rules show that super strong El Niño sea temperature peaks often appear in the autumn and winter of that year, which will have a lasting impact on the climate across seasons.

Zhu Dingzhen, the chief scientific communication expert in the National Meteorology Department: "The entire process of El Niño starts with the gradual increase in seawater temperature, seawater temperature heats the upper atmosphere, and the upper atmosphere then transmits and affects changes in the weather system thousands of kilometers away. This takes time. Just like when we turn on the air conditioner at home, there is a start-up process, and it takes time to warm the entire room. The entire earth is an open system, with local heating, and its influence is ring by ring, ring by ring, which usually takes several months, half a year, or even a year longer."

Chao Qingchen: "At present, El Niño will continue to develop and will have an impact on the climate of the world and my country this autumn and winter and next spring and summer. It is expected that from December to February 2027, the temperature in my country will be generally higher, the frequency of cold waves will be slightly more, the temperature will fluctuate greatly, and the precipitation will be more overall. We need to focus on preventing periodic strong cold waves and the impact of low-temperature rain and snow in the south."

Meteorological experts emphasize that the impact of super El Niño events has an obvious lag, and the most prominent climate risks are often in the spring and summer of the following year.

Experts predict that the temperature this winter will be generally warm, but periodic cold air activities will be more frequent, with obvious fluctuations in cold and warm temperatures. In the summer of 2027, my country's climate will be more significantly affected by El Niño than in 2026. There will be significantly more precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the risk of heavy rains and floods will be higher. There may be severe floods. High-temperature heat waves in Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China and other places will also be more obvious. Agriculture is one of the industries that may be most affected.

Chao Qingchen: "With regard to the impact on agriculture, in the context of the El Niño event, firstly, we should pay attention to the possibility of excessive rainfall in the south in the current autumn, which will have adverse effects on the maturity, harvesting and drying of late rice. At the same time, we should pay attention to disasters such as farmland damage. Secondly, we should pay attention to the deterioration of soil moisture that may be caused by continued high temperature and drought in the north, thus affecting the output of major crops such as wheat and corn in the Huang-Huaihai Plain. Thirdly, we should pay attention to the possibility of continuous rainfall in the following spring and summer to adversely affect crops such as rice and rapeseed."

Zhao Junhu: "In the spring and summer next year, the distribution of droughts and floods in our country may be uneven. For example, the southern region is dominated by floods, and droughts may occur in the northwest and east to the Huanghuai region. Therefore, the south must prevent floods and the north must resist drought. During next year's flood season, the center of heavy precipitation will mainly be in the Yangtze River Basin, and the probability of basin-wide floods in the Yangtze River Basin is relatively high."

Experts suggest that due to the lag of the El Niño phenomenon, next spring and summer will be a critical period for the impact on agricultural production. Late spring cold, continuous drought in spring and summer, high temperature and heat damage during the grain-filling period and other phenomena are likely to occur, and prevention needs to be taken in advance.

In addition, in view of the extreme rainfall that Super El Niño may bring and the resulting disasters such as urban flooding, flash floods, landslides, and mudslides, as well as the possible risks such as railway suspensions, highway closures, port suspensions, and flight delays, we should focus on enhancing urban resilience and improving infrastructure disaster prevention capabilities. When it comes to energy, the National Climate Center recommends paying attention to the impact of the periodic strong cold wave in the winter on heating in northern areas, and the possible impact of large-scale high temperatures in the following summer on air conditioning loads and peak electricity consumption.

Chao Qingchen: "In addition, El Niño has different impacts on precipitation in various river basins, which can easily lead to spatial mismatch of incoming water and abnormal fluctuations in load peaks, and even increase reservoir dispatch pressure, which requires continued attention."

Experts remind that El Niño itself is a cyclical oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon. At present, the meteorological department has established a mechanism for continuous monitoring, rolling analysis and judgment, and graded early warning to closely track the development trend of this super El Niño event.

The arrival of super El Niño once again reminds us that climate risks are not far away from us. Experts suggest that all localities should prepare disaster prevention plans in key areas in advance based on local climate characteristics, all walks of life should prepare for risks, and the general public should pay more attention to weather warning information. At the same time, in the face of global climate change, we must take a long-term view, take precautions, and continue to improve our ability to cope with extreme climate.