The Taipei mayoral election has attracted much attention. In a recent interview, polling expert Dai Li'an bluntly said that the signal of change in Taipei City is already very strong. Although Jiang Wanan has retained the base of dark blue, the light blue ethnic group is indeed losing votes.
Dai Li'an, whose past polls have been highly praised, cooperated with the Cross-Strait Research Association to release Taipei mayor polls on September 22 and October 20 respectively. The former showed Chiang Wanan's support (41.7%) It was only 1.2 percentage points ahead of Shen Boyang (40.5%). The latter experienced a sharp rise and fall in just one month, and Shen Boyang (50.3%) reversed and led Jiang Wanan (33.3%) by 17 percentage points. This caused a large number of blue camp supporters to collapse, falsely accusing Dalian of taking money from the green camp to conduct fake polls.
Last Friday (10/30), Dai Li'an accepted an exclusive interview on the "Guan Guan Qin Explosion" hosted by veteran media person Huang Guangqin. He said that the latest poll he conducted showed that Shen Boyang not only reversed but also defeated Jiang Wanan. This was because the "ocean current effect" was very hot, and green camp supporters were extremely willing to express their opinions. In September, he said According to the poll, the public opinion rate was about 80%, and by October it rose to 90%, especially among young voters. This phenomenon is similar to the election enthusiasm of Ko Wenzhe in 2014 when he was elected mayor of Taipei, in 2018 South Korea Yu elected mayor of Kaohsiung, and in 2020 when Tsai Ing-wen was seeking re-election as president. In contrast, the blue and white camp fell into a "spiral of silence", resulting in a significant gap in the opinions of the interviewed samples.
In response to the outside world's doubts about the polling data, Daley ignored the malicious slander and emphasized that his polling data are based on facts and are only weighted by demographics and never by political parties, otherwise it will distort the people's true attitudes. However, when conducting "vote prediction", the voting records of the past 10 to 15 years and the attitude of rejecting applicants must be included in the model calculation. Taking Taipei City's estimated results in October as an example, under different turnout scenarios, the election points range from "Chiang Wanan may win by 0.7%" to "Shen Boyang may win by 6%."
"Middle blue and light blue lost nearly 7 percentage points."
Dai Li'an bluntly said that although Jiang Wanan still holds the base of the dark blue, he is "already losing votes." Among the voters of the middle blue and light blue, about 6% to 7% lost, and some of them turned to Shen Boyang. Under the overall increase and decrease, Shen Boyang's support increased by approximately 8.5%, while Jiang Wanan's support fell by 8.5%, and the gap widened to 17%. The current blue-green political sector in Taipei City is no longer the traditional "June 4th Ratio". Although Chiang Wanan still has a chance of winning, the signal for a comeback is very strong. He cited the 2018 Kaohsiung election as an example. At that time, there were abnormal signals in August that the support for the green camp was high but the "hope to change party and see" data was even higher. By October, Han Kuo-yu had achieved a reversal. The current political and economic background and public sentiment in Taipei City also show a strong trend of change.
He also said that the "ocean current effect" has already spilled over to other counties and cities. When he investigated "which party wants to be in power" in the six cities, he found that the KMT only maintained the lead in Taoyuan. In Taichung City, the proportion of people who wanted the DPP to be in power actually surpassed the KMT. This result made him "shocked." A Taichung poll will also be released in the near future.
It is worth mentioning that this interview took place the day before the televised debate for the Taipei mayoral election (10/31). Many people are very much looking forward to whether the election situation will change further after the debate. However, Dai Lian said that there is no need to expect any special effects from the debate. Historically, the effect of debates only lasts for 2 or 3 days, and in the end they have to return to municipal affairs.
The article mentioned the poll released on September 22. The Trustees Association entrusted Dai Li'an to be responsible for the questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted the telephone interview. The survey period was from September 16 to 18. The survey targets were Taipei City voters, and 1,076 people were successfully interviewed (752 by residential phone and 324 by mobile phone). , the maximum sampling error is ±3.0%; the poll sponsor announced on October 20 is the same as above, the survey time is from October 14 to October 16, the survey subjects are the same as above, 1,075 people were successfully interviewed (753 people on residential phones, 322 on mobile phones), the maximum sampling error is ±3.0%.
