Some items that were not initially considered in the calculations also had an impact on the final result. These include around 700 million in investments made by RFI and Anas and almost 1 billion attributable to public-private partnerships. On the front of the fictitious tax credits linked to the 110% Superbonus, however, the checks have so far led to the accounting of 3.2 billion, without however intercepting the entire amount that had contributed to burdening the 2025 accounts.
For further information: Istat confirms the 2025 deficit at 3.1% of GDP. Italy remains in infringement proceedings
However, Italy's permanence in the European procedure, on a concrete level, does not entail an immediate increase in obligations on public finances. The mechanism that provided for an annual correction of 0.5% of the structural deficit is in fact suspended. What determines compliance with the new community constraints is above all the parameter of net expenditure, introduced with the reform of the Stability Pact. As long as the evolution of spending remains within the margins agreed with Brussels, no further corrective interventions are imposed. And it is precisely in this situation that Italy currently finds itself.
For further information: EU, what the excessive deficit infringement procedure is and how it works
Another element destined to weigh on the future of the accounts is the so-called national clause for investments in security and the energy sector. Italy has already communicated to the European Commission its intention to use it, asking to be able to subtract from the calculation of the deficit a share equal to 1.5% of GDP over the next two years: approximately 36 billion euros. The possibility of taking advantage of this margin, however, is not automatic. The relevant resources must be included in the budget documents and the choice must also be evaluated in light of Italy's position in the excessive deficit procedure. It is precisely on this point that the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti highlighted a possible critical issue. In fact, the mechanism creates a difference between countries: those who exceed the 3% deficit precisely because of higher spending on defense and energy can benefit from the clause without entering into the procedure, while a state that is already above the threshold, such as Italy, could use the exemption without automatically being able to close the file on the deficit.
The scenario could however change through a political agreement at European level. The Commission has hinted at the possibility of not considering the activation of the clause incompatible with the existence of an excessive deficit procedure. A precedent already exists. Belgium, which is also in the corrective arm of the Stability Pact, has in fact already used the mechanism to finance greater spending on military security and energy. The path to a shared solution at European level therefore remains open.
Failure to pass the procedure, at least for now, should not substantially change the approach of the next financial measure. Minister Giorgetti is expected in Parliament in a month, with a provision that will also be the last of the legislature. The announced approach remains that of a budget law with moderately expansionary effects. The hypotheses currently on the table speak of an overall size of between 25 and 30 billion euros. Within the majority, however, the provision on which there seems to be greater convergence concerns above all the continuation of interventions on the Irpef, this time with specific attention to the middle class segment.
The real extent of the maneuver will depend above all on the resources that the government manages to find. The space allowed by the net spending rule appears greater than that available on the deficit front, where the margins remain more limited. Help could come from the European clause for defense and energy. Over the two-year period, the extra-deficit that can be authorized would reach 1.5% of GDP, with an indicative distribution of 0.6% in 2027 and 0.9% in 2028. A part of the expenses already included in the trend forecasts could be brought back within this perimeter, thus freeing up further resources to be allocated to new interventions.
However, a favorable element also emerges from the review of the national accounts. The estimate of Italian economic growth has in fact been corrected upwards. For 2025 the increase in GDP has been revised to 0.6%, against the 0.5% indicated in the April survey. The correction relating to 2024 was even larger, when growth went from the 0.7% initially estimated to 1.1%. The difference may seem limited in percentage terms, but it equates to an increase of more than a third compared to the previous assessment. However, the positive revisions do not represent an isolated episode: in recent years the new statistical calculations have repeatedly returned growth levels higher than the initial estimates.
A more dynamic GDP than expected is not just a statistical fact, but can also have consequences on public finances. Greater growth in fact tends to expand revenues and, therefore, create new margins for the interventions of the Budget law. The so-called fiscal drag also contributes to supporting the accounts, i.e. the increase in the levy determined by the fact that higher nominal incomes trigger higher taxation even without a corresponding increase in real purchasing power. This effect generates an estimated 5-6 billion euros in additional revenue each year. These are resources which, in the European assessment, can be considered positive for the balance of the accounts, but which are not normally included in the trend public finance forecasts. It is also this "hidden" margin that could help support future budget policy choices.
On Insider:With the 2025 deficit at 3.1% what happens now? Spoiler: almost nothing
