Speaking at the press conference held at DEİK Headquarters to introduce the report, DEİK President Nail Olpak said that China's position in the US market has significantly declined after the additional customs tariffs implemented by the USA in 2025, and that China has accelerated its strategy to diversify its export markets.
Stating that the share of China's exports to the USA in total foreign sales decreased from 14.68 percent in 2024 to 11.14 percent in 2025, Olpak stated that a very important transformation has occurred in the trade policies between the two countries.
Olpak noted that global trade does not disappear when access to a market becomes difficult, it finds new ways, countries and partnerships, and said, "We see this in the example of China. The decline in the US market leads China to create new trade channels in a much wider geography, from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to Africa, from the Middle East to Europe. Therefore, the issue is not only a tariff debate between the US and China, but also a matter of reshaping global trade routes." he said.
"China's new markets are also important markets of the Turkish business world"
Nail Olpak stated that China has rapidly increased its weight in alternative markets in response to the decline in the US market, and said that in the 2024-2025 period, this country's exports increased by 25.9 percent to Africa, 9.7 percent to the Middle East and 8.63 percent to the EU.
Stating that Nigeria in Africa, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Middle East and Germany in the EU are the prominent markets for China, Olpak emphasized that the change in China's export geography should be followed closely for Turkey.
Olpak noted that there is an important intersection here that needs to be taken into consideration for Türkiye and continued his words as follows:
"A significant part of the geographies that China is focusing on are also markets where the Turkish business world is strong or aims to grow. Africa, the Middle East and Europe, where it is focusing more strongly in order to compensate for its loss in the US market, are also geographies where the Turkish business world is traditionally strong or where it wants to grow further. For this reason, we have to closely monitor the geographical diversification of China's exports.
Therefore, we should read the coming period not only as a competition risk, but also as a period in which new opportunities emerge for Türkiye within the changing global trade balances. Moreover, the new competition is not only shaped by price and technology. The capacity to establish a reliable supplier, predictable business partner and sustainable relationship is becoming more and more decisive. "I see this as an emerging 'trust competition' in global trade."
"The important thing is to be able to transform our advantages into trade and investment with the right strategy."
DEIK President Olpak stated that it is not correct to read this situation simply as "China is coming, competition is increasing" and said, "While global trade is being reconstructed, Türkiye's production capacity, geographical location, logistics advantages, integration with Europe and strong business relations developed in different geographies provide us with important advantages. The important thing is to be able to transform these advantages into trade and investment with the right strategy." he said.
Stating that according to the data in the report, China's rise in the German market does not yet pose a direct and significant threat to Turkey, Olpak said that there are areas that need to be followed more closely for Turkey, and Africa and the Middle East are at the top of these.
Olpak stated that while China exports 19.97 billion dollars to Egypt in 2025, Türkiye's exports to Egypt remain at 4.07 billion dollars, indicating that the competitive gap has widened in favor of China.
Emphasizing that Türkiye's position in Africa should not be evaluated only through price competition, Olpak made the following statements:
"When it comes to Africa, Türkiye has a very important experience. In addition to our trade, we have developed multidimensional relations from contracting to investment, from logistics to industrial cooperation. Of course, we will follow China's increasing weight carefully. However, I think our competition model should progress not only on price but also on quality, trust, sustainable partnership, local collaborations and mutual gain. Because in the coming period, we will experience a trust competition as well as price competition. Turkey's capacity to establish long-term relationships and be a reliable partner is an important competition, especially in Africa and the Middle East “It can turn into an advantage.”
"Türkiye can strengthen its position as a production and investment center in this process"
Nail Olpak stated that while China's exports to the UAE increased to 72.9 billion dollars, Türkiye's exports to this country were at the level of 9.28 billion dollars, and emphasized that Turkish companies should focus more on value-added production.
Stating that in the new period, not only how much is exported to which country, but also which product, with which technology level and with what added value should be exported, should be discussed more, Olpak said, "In markets where competition is intense, Turkey's answer should be more added value, stronger brands, technology, innovation and establishing permanent partnerships in the market." he said.
Olpak pointed out that the trade tension between the USA and China has reshaped global supply chains and said that Türkiye can strengthen its position as a production and investment center in this process.
The only question in the world is "where can I produce cheaper?" Underlining that the question is not asked, Olpak said, "Where can I produce safer, how can I reach my market faster, how can I diversify my supply chain, with which partner can I establish a long-term and predictable relationship?" The questions have become at least as important as the cost. Therefore, in addition to price and technology competition in global trade, we also need to talk about an increasingly stronger trust competition. "Türkiye has a very strong potential at this point."
The transformation in US-China trade offers new investment and production opportunities
DEIK President Olpak explained that its proximity to Europe, strong industrial infrastructure, trained human resources, logistics capabilities and economic relations with different geographies make Türkiye an important alternative in changing global supply chains.
Expressing that Türkiye's capacity to be a reliable production, supply and investment partner should be evaluated together with these advantages, Olpak said, "Therefore, we should evaluate the transformation in US-China trade not only in terms of the competition that may arise in our export markets, but also in terms of new investments and production opportunities that may come to Türkiye." he said.
Olpak noted that protectionism, regionalization and diversification of supply chains in global trade will be discussed more in the coming period and made the following evaluations:
"As DEİK, we continue to pave the way for the Turkish private sector and develop new markets and new collaborations all over the world with our 153 business councils. We also follow China's changing export strategy from this perspective. Where competition is increasing, where a new opportunity arises, in which markets we need to be stronger; we have to analyze these based on data. Our goal is not a Turkey that follows the results of changing global trade, but a Turkey that takes a position in the new trade architecture, develops new partnerships, strengthens its reliable trade partner identity and turns change into an opportunity." “It should be.”
"(Fund investigations) Anyone who makes a mistake should be dealt with and those mistakes should be held accountable."
In response to a question on the subject, Nail Olpak said that exporters mainly have demands to reduce the gap between inflation and exchange rate, to increase exchange rates slightly, to increase some supports for currency exchange, and that there are also incomprehensible increases in costs.
Olpak said, "I do not think that the issue of increasing the exchange rate is an easy solution in the first place. We should also look at our experiences in the past years. In a country whose imports are more than its exports, an increase in the exchange rate is perceived as a solution in a very short time, but we all know that our prices will also increase immediately afterwards. If that is not enough, the buyer in the country we export to says 'You had such an exchange rate change, there was a devaluation, you made a profit from here, come and give me a discount'. This does not seem to be a solution in the medium term." he said.
In response to a question about the fund investigations, Olpak said, "A legal process is ongoing. Anyone who made a mistake should be dealt with and those mistakes should be held accountable." he replied.
