Dems have edge in midterms, poll shows. And, Paramount-Warner Bros. merger to close

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In four weeks, Election Day will be here, and a series of new polls show Democrats have a decided advantage in the midterms. They are favored to win the House with a narrow majority. Democrats need 218 seats for a majority, and the Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of five to 15 seats, which would give them between 220 and 230 seats in January. The Senate has shifted more dramatically. Six seats have moved toward the Democrats' direction since June, according to Cook's ratings. Initially seen as a long shot for Democrats, the Senate is now within reach. These projections come as President Trump's approval rating is low.

Polls are just one factor to consider for the midterms, NPR's Domenico Montanaro tells Up First. He notes that people should consider the importance of history, the national environment, political structure and money as factors as well. And people still have to vote in the elections, but even so, the momentum seems to be shifting toward Democrats, particularly in the Senate. Democratic gains in the House are uncertain, as the party's unpopularity and the fact that 25 of the 31 targeted districts are in areas Trump won in 2024 could make it hard to tip the scales in their favor, Montanaro says.

A new era in Hollywood is set to arrive today as David Ellison's long-anticipated $111 billion merger with Paramount-Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to close. Despite facing months of public protests, the deal has cleared legal and regulatory challenges in the U.S. and Europe. The media conglomerate Skydance unites two film studios, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures, both more than 100 years old.

Ellison defended the merger against critics concerned about him having too much media power, NPR's Mandalit del Barco says. As part of a settlement to move the deal forward, Ellison agreed to produce 30 films a year with the combined studios, but critics remain skeptical. Concerns also linger about CNN's future, given that Ellison is an ally of Trump. To address these worries, Ellison promised to establish an independent oversight board to protect CNN from political interference. People who don't agree with the deal predict that viewers may soon see an increase in cost for streaming services and they could have fewer choices, according to del Barco.

Catherine Sweeney from NPR network station WPLN was one of seven media witnesses to observe Tennessee's failed execution of Christa Pike, the first woman to face the death penalty in the state in nearly 200 years. Each witness sensed that the lethal injection might not proceed smoothly. Pike's attorneys had requested the Tennessee Supreme Court to allow hanging instead due to concerns that her platelet disorder and small veins would make the injection painful and ineffective. Sweeney describes what she saw and heard throughout that day.

Russian authorities are urging people to remain calm after a worker at an infectious diseases institute in Siberia died from a mysterious illness, raising speculation about a potential plague outbreak. Last Tuesday, a 28-year-old female lab worker at the anti-plague Research Institute in Irkutsk fell ill and died two days later. Questions remain over the cause of her death. Here's what we do and don't know.

On the road to the midterms

Four weeks from now, the midterm election will help decide the balance of power in Congress. And ahead of Election Day, Morning Edition will be traveling to six states with some of the most competitive races to hear what voters say is shaping their decisions.

Steve Inskeep is reporting from North Carolina and Georgia. Michel Martin is headed to Ohio and Michigan. Leila Fadel is reporting from Maine. And A Martínez is heading to Texas.

Across the political divide, one concern keeps rising to the top: the cost of living and what it means for people's economic futures.

But voters are weighing more than their bills. Immigration and the rapid growth of massive data centers are also part of the conversation. So is the voting process itself, including new restrictions that are raising questions about how ballots will be cast, secured and counted.

Over the next four weeks, Morning Edition will report from different races and electorates across the country, asking many of the same questions: What matters to voters now, what has changed and where is the country headed next?

So what will our hosts be listening for when Morning Edition hits the road? We asked them. Here are four things on their minds:

Steve Inskeep: "I am watching and listening for people who feel this election is personal. By which I mean that, beyond their general opinion of the state of the country, they feel they were directly affected by the events of the past two years — the Trump administration's dramatic moves to reshape immigration, government, education, science, research, the military, emergency management, taxes, foreign policy and the economy at large."

Michel Martin: "Ohio is also a key location for the Trump administration's mass deportation campaign, as well as a leading industrial and logistics hub, a place where we should be able to see how the administration's economic policies are playing out. Trump isn't on the ballot, but his policies are. So let's see how that's going.

"Michigan was once considered a big part of the Democrats' 'Blue Wall,' but in recent years has chosen both Democrats and Republicans in key races. And the Democratic base has had beef with the national party. So what's driving voters? Are they mad? Sad? Or just exhausted? We hope to find out."

Leila Fadel: "The path to controlling the Senate in part runs through Maine, and that's why we're reporting in the state before the midterm elections. I want to know what drives voters, and how much party loyalty still plays a role. Are their votes up for grabs? Or are they locked in along party lines?"

"This is a state that's seen some of the worst of the immigration crackdown; a man was killed by ICE. It has one of the longest borders with Canada, and so the trade war hits differently. The Democratic candidate Troy Jackson is facing incumbent Susan Collins, who has won her state five times before. So, we'll be asking what people want from their candidate and if it matters which party that resonating message comes from."

A Martínez: "Texas Republicans gerrymandered five congressional districts to favor the GOP in the upcoming midterms. In three of them, the new maps created more Latino voters."

"What's behind the Texas GOP's big bet on Latino voters, and will it help Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate?"

Picture show

A new NPR series is taking readers and listeners to breakfast tables around the world. In Munich, Germany, a Bavarian breakfast typically consists of boiled veal sausage, sweet mustard and a giant pretzel, all washed down with beer. Demetrios Kyriakides, who spent a year researching Bavarian breakfast joints in Munich, says the ambiance of Gemütlichkeit, which describes conviviality, is just as important as the food. A meal is often accompanied by brass oom-pah-pah music. This feast is usually finished before the church bells ring at midday, signaling that all good things must come to an end. Check out these photos of breakfast in Munich.

3 things to know before you go

Under artistic director Robert Garland, Dance Theatre of Harlem is embarking on a new era by reviving its landmark 1982 production of Firebird for an international tour.

Biologists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have found what may potentially be the world's loudest birds, and they all live in Brazil. (via WBUR)

Scientist Olivia Sanderfoot wants to establish a new field called "smoke ecology," which studies the effects of wildfire smoke on wildlife and seeks ways to mitigate its impacts.