The weakening of the Swedish krona: Causes and consequences

The krone has had a hard time against several currencies. After a substantial strengthening last year, it stopped at the beginning of 2026, where the krone has since steadily lost ground. In the last month, the development has gained extra momentum.

The weakening is felt against all major currencies. One dollar cost 10.04 kroner on Friday, compared to 8.77 at the end of January. One euro has gone from SEK 10.52 to SEK 11.30.

- It is connected with the development in the Middle East. When the war broke out, the krone has in principle continuously weakened against the dollar above all, says Amanda Sundström, interest rate and currency strategist at SEB.

During the year, market interest rates in many countries have also taken sharp upward leaps.

- The krona does not like when there are high interest rates in the outside world, growth prospects are threatened and risk-taking in the markets is a little weak. And lately we have had a combination of several of these factors, says Amanda Sundström.

There are both winners and losers on a weaker krone. A winner is Swedish savers who have a lot saved in global and US funds. When the krona becomes weaker against the dollar, it raises the value of these funds.

- Savers with global funds in their portfolio have received a great return this year. It works as a shock absorber in the portfolio for Swedes, which is positive, says Maria Landeborn.

So far this year, returns are 20 percent and more for the global and US funds.

A possible winner is also Swedish export companies. When Swedish goods become cheaper for foreign buyers, they can become more attractive. But it is not absolutely certain.

- In the short term, it is good for margins and competitiveness that the krona weakens. But should rising interest rates lead to problems with the economy and demand, exports will not benefit, says Maria Landeborn.

Amanda Sundström points to another factor that can influence.

- The companies import a lot of the inputs for their production. So it is not easy to say clearly how big the gains or losses will be with a weaker krona, she says.

- Regardless of whether you win on a weaker or a stronger krona, it is difficult for the companies when there are such large fluctuations. So I think stability is the most important thing, says Amanda Sundström.

There are also several losers on a weaker krone. An obvious one is the Swedes who want to travel abroad. Their holiday coffers are getting thinner.

- We have had a period where we got a little more for the Swedish krona when we have been out and about, but now it has quickly gone the other way. Above all, it has become more expensive to go to the USA. But even Europe costs more, notes Maria Landeborn.

Another loser could be Swedes with variable mortgages. The reason is that a weaker krona makes foreign goods more expensive for us, which can push up inflation. The hot potato ends up in the lap of the Riksbank, which is supposed to keep inflation under control.

- The Riksbank will most likely have to start raising interest rates again. It hits straight into the wallets of many who have variable loans, says Maria Landeborn.

About 75 percent of households have variable mortgages, according to Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden.