Deterring Russia becomes NATO's main effort as US scales back in Europe

NATO is weighing its biggest overhaul of military planning in at least two decades, and the question at its centre is simple: should the alliance prepare to fight Russia in Europe, or to fight Russia in Europe and also run crises elsewhere? According to a Politico report, the 32 members have begun negotiations on new military capability requirements, which set the troops, weapons and funding countries must make available in a conflict.

Under a draft planning document, members may no longer have to keep enough forces to fight a major war in Europe and, at the same time, carry out smaller crisis-management operations outside NATO territory. They could instead be asked to prepare for one scenario or the other. That would end a planning requirement in place for at least 20 years. It reflects the alliance's renewed focus on territorial defence since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and pressure from Washington to make European security NATO's main mission.

Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general for defence investment, said the proposal recognises that a major conflict in Europe would take priority over everything else. Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson, backed the shift, arguing that deterring Russia should be the alliance's main effort, particularly as the US reduces its military commitment to Europe. The change would not automatically affect missions in Kosovo and Iraq, and officials stress that NATO is not abandoning crisis response. Talks are at an early stage, with the Political Guidance document due by February and new capability requirements by 2029.

Why the urgency

The reasoning rests on warnings from think tanks. The Royal United Services Institute in London says there is now a credible threat of peer-level conflict in Europe by 2030, and that the question is no longer whether a war is possible but whether Europe is prepared to fight one. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington goes further. In a report published on September 16, 2026, it said Russia is stepping up a coordinated campaign against European countries, including sabotage of critical infrastructure, attacks on defence industry facilities, cyber operations, assassination plots, airspace violations and threats to undersea cables. ISW argues these are coordinated, state-directed attacks and not isolated incidents or merely hybrid warfare.

It also warned that Moscow could attempt a limited incursion, possibly against a Baltic state, to test NATO's unity and its willingness to invoke Article 5, the collective defence clause. Such a move could come before the 2028 to 2030 window cited by several members, with some assessments suggesting Russia could restore combat readiness by 2027. ISW urged European countries to speed up preparedness, protect critical infrastructure and learn from Ukraine. NATO, it said, must combine conventional capabilities such as armour, artillery and air power with drones and electronic warfare, and not depend on either traditional or drone-centric strategies alone. If the proposal goes through, it will show how quickly a conflict on Europe's eastern edge has changed what the world's biggest military alliance plans to be ready for.