DHL, world trade will grow by 3.4% per year and globalization at 25.8%

Between now and 2029, global trade in goods is expected to grow by an average of 3.4% per year, higher than the 2.7% recorded annually in the previous decade. Furthermore, in 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8% based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people.

This was revealed in the latest edition of the 'DHL Globalization Tracker' report, published today by DHL and the Stern School of Business at New York University, which underlines how the AI ​​boom is proving to be more powerful than tariffs and geopolitical shocks in determining the trend of global trade.

In the first half of 2026, the research found, global trade in goods increased at a faster pace than in any other half of the past 15 years, except for the post-Covid recovery.

The East Asia and Pacific macro-region recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade increased by 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. This was followed by Europe (+12%) and Sub-Saharan Africa with (+11%). The same macro-region has also seen a greater share of its trade remain within the region: from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of this year, thanks to supply chains supporting the AI ​​boom.

Ultimately, the weakening of ties between the US and China has had a limited global impact. Trade between the two powers in 2015, at its peak, represented 3.5% of world trade, before falling to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. The share of the United States and China in international business investment is even smaller: less than 1%.