The dispute for the votes of Bolsonarists marked the 45 days of campaigning for the Government of Rio de Janeiro.
Former mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) sought to avoid forming an umbilical association with President Lula, his ally, in order to maintain a portion of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's (PL) voters, the majority in the state. The president of Alerj (Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro), Douglas Ruas (PL), in turn, abused the image of his supporter and former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), to present himself as a representative of the right in the state.
Datafolha's voting intention surveys throughout the campaign showed that Ruas advanced mainly among Flávio voters, which enabled his constant growth. However, Paes managed to retain a portion of this electorate, enough to maintain the lead in the surveys.
This Friday (2), Paes met with mayors of municipalities in Baixada Fluminense, an area of Bolsonaro concentration, while Lula took part in a walk in the center of the capital.
Ruas had a motorcade scheduled for this Saturday (3) with Flávio Bolsonaro in the west zone of Rio de Janeiro to end his campaign.
The former mayor's campaign emulated his strategy for re-election to the mayor's office in 2024, when he faced former deputy Alexandre Ramagem (PL). He spared Bolsonaro from harsher criticism and sought to separate the national dispute from the state one.
"Why don't I stick with their talk about Bolsonaro, Lula? Because here we have a governor who wants to deal with Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro needs to be a priority. In 2018, we saw this script. Wilson Witzel presented himself as Bolsonaro's candidate and it worked. Cláudio Castro did the same thing in 2022 and it happened. Always using the national discourse", he said in the TV Globo debate.
At the same time, Paes sought to present Ruas as a name chosen by former governor Cláudio Castro (PL), who gave up running for the Senate after being the target of two Federal Police operations. It also highlighted the alliance with Rodrigo Bacellar (União), former president of Alerj arrested on suspicion of leaking information from a police operation against a former deputy linked to Comando Vermelho.
A first-term deputy, the PL candidate sought to present himself as a name chosen by Bolsonaro. He also bet on Paes' association with Lula to increase the rejection of the former mayor in Flávio's electorate.
"There are people who receive Lula, make an agenda with Lula and don't even post it on social media. They have to admit it. Eduardo Paes has Lula and is reluctant to hide it", said Ruas in the debate.
At the same time, the PL candidate classified his relationship with Castro and Bacellar as professional, repeating the mantra: "I never chose a boss, I always chose a mission." He was Secretary of Cities under the former governor for two and a half years.
The two polarized the dispute, but saw resilience in voting intentions for former governor Anthony Garotinho (Republicans). He remained in the 9% range in the polls, even with the vulnerability of his candidacy due to the rejection of his registration with the TRE (Regional Electoral Court).
Last Friday (2), minister Floriano Marques, from the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), determined that the votes cast in Garotinho were considered null and void.
The decision could favor Paes, since, in a scenario without the former governor, Ruas expanded his voting intentions more than the former mayor. As Garotinho remains in the electronic ballot box, he can still be chosen without indicating the invalidation of the vote to the voter.
