Federal public debt remains stable in August and closes at R$9.293 trillion

The Federal Public Debt (DPF) remained stable in August and ended the month at R$9.293 trillion, an increase of just 0.04%. The number was released this Monday (28) by the National Treasury. In July, the indicator was R$9.289 trillion.

The advance occurred even with the Treasury redeeming R$84.43 billion in more bonds than it issued. This is because the incorporation of R$88.39 billion in interest more than offset the effect of the redemptions and kept the debt stock rising.

Through the incorporation of interest, the Treasury recognizes, month by month, the interest that accrues on the public debt. The Treasury's forecast is that the DPF will end 2026 at between R$9.7 trillion and R$10.3 trillion.

Internal debt

Most of the debt is concentrated in the domestic market.

The internal Federal Public Securities Debt (DPMFi) fell 0.05% in August and ended the month at R$8.944 trillion.

The external Federal Public Debt (DPFe) increased 2.41%, to R$ 348.26 billion, of which:

R$299.70 billion corresponds to securities debt;

R$48.56 billion relates to contractual debt (such as foreign financing).

Selic gains space

One of the highlights of the report was the increase in the share of securities linked to the Selic rate.

The share of these securities went from 51.11% in July to 52.74% in August, the highest level in the historical series, according to the Treasury.

The composition of the debt was as follows:

52.74% in floating rate bonds (Selic);

23.22% in inflation-indexed bonds;

20.31% in pre-fixed securities;

3.74% in foreign exchange bonds.

The 2026 Annual Financing Plan (PAF) foresees participation between 49% and 53% for securities linked to the Selic Rate. The estimate was revised upwards last month.

Deadline increases

The average debt term also improved in August. The indicator went from 4.05 years to 4.10 years.

At the same time, the portion of debt maturing within 12 months fell from 18.91% to 16.39%.

The average cost accumulated over 12 months went from 12.45% per year, in July, to 12.59% per year, in August.

Reserve retreats

The National Treasury's liquidity reserve, known as the debt cushion, fell 11.89% in nominal terms during August.

The volume went from R$1.37 trillion in July to R$1.208 trillion in the following month.

Despite the reduction, the Treasury reported that the current level is sufficient to cover approximately 7.18 months of debt maturities.

The reserve brings together resources destined exclusively to pay the debt and cash from the issuance of bonds.

Foreigners advance

The participation of foreign investors in the domestic debt stock also increased. The share went from 9.82% in July to 9.91% in August.

In nominal values, the stock of securities held by non-resident investors in the country rose from R$879.07 billion to R$886.3 billion.

Financial institutions continue to be the main holders of securities, with 31.22% of the stock.

Next appear:

Investment funds: 22.52%;

Pension: 22.63%;

Insurance companies: 3.34%.

Why does debt grow?

Public debt can increase even when the government redeems more bonds than it issues.

This is what happened in August: the Treasury carried out a net redemption of R$84.43 billion, but the interest incorporated into the stock reached R$88.39 billion.

In practice, the interest added to the outstanding balance exceeded the effect of the reduction caused by redemptions.

The Treasury also reported that the international scenario continues to be marked by volatility, while the composition of debt has been reflecting the environment of high interest rates and uncertainty.

Forecast

The Treasury maintains the forecast for 2026 that the Federal Public Debt will end the year between R$9.7 trillion and R$10.3 trillion.

According to the body, the expectation is to gradually reduce the share of floating rate bonds if the country returns to recording primary surpluses on a structural basis.

Through public debt, the government borrows resources from investors to honor commitments. In exchange, it undertakes to return the money with some correction, which can be prefixed (defined in advance) or follow the Selic Rate, inflation and exchange rate.