By the end of the century, the Earth will be 2.6 degrees warmer - warns the UN

Emissions remain at record levels. National climate plans and current action strategies are dangerously insufficient and point to temperature increases ranging from 2.6 to 2.8 degrees, said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

The report was presented less than three weeks before the COP31 climate conference in Turkey.

Worse forecasts than last year

The latest estimates are less optimistic than those published a year earlier. At that time, it was predicted that the temperature would increase by 2.3-2.5 degrees Celsius.

AFP indicated that the change in forecasts was influenced by, among others, withdrawal of the United States - the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases - from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Corrections to data on the historical scale of emissions were also important.

Emissions increase in the US, China and Indonesia

Data for 2025 show that emissions have increased in the United States, China and Indonesia. However, they fell in India, Russia and the European Union.

The report's authors concluded that the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was "lost." They pointed to "decades of insufficient climate action", especially in the richest G20 countries. Countries in this group are responsible for about three quarters of global emissions.

Every fraction of a degree matters

Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree above the 1.5-degree threshold increases the frequency of extreme weather phenomena and the likelihood of irreversible changes to the planet - from the death of coral reefs to the thawing of permafrost.

The report also considers a scenario in which warming reaches a maximum of 1.8 degrees Celsius and then falls below 1.5 degrees. However, implementing such an option would require a significant reduction in emissions.

Compared to 2025 levels, global emissions would need to reduce by 18%. by the end of this decade, by 45 percent. by 2035 and by 69 percent until 2040.