
Investors monitor economic data in the US and the national political scenario with voting in Congress and electoral research.
AI-generated summary
New US inflation data and the Fed's Beige Book guide the global economy.
The dollar opened this Wednesday's session (14) on a slight rise, with an increase of 0.04% close to 9 am, quoted at R$5.0216. Ibovespa trading, the main index on the Brazilian stock exchange, starts at 10am.
The new US inflation data and the release of the Beige Book, from the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank of the United States) are the main highlight of today's economic agenda. In the national news, investors remain attentive to the progress of the PEC that proposes the end of the 6x1 scale in the Senate and the new Quaest electoral survey, scheduled for 6 pm.
In Brazil, the political scenario remains on the radar. Throughout the day, the highlight is the vote on the PEC that foresees the end of the 6x1 scale, which faces one of the most important votes in its progress in the National Congress this Wednesday. Understand what is at stake.
Regarding the electoral framework, Quaest publishes, after the market closes, its first voting intention survey for the 2nd round. The research should also bring votes in the first round, level of rejection of candidates, knowledge about presidential candidates' proposals and evaluation of the Lula government.
On the economic agenda, the focus is on the US consumer price index (CPI). The market expectation is that the indicator, which measures inflation for the American consumer, will remain at 0.6% in September, an acceleration in relation to what was observed in August (0.4%).
If confirmed, the data should reinforce expectations of an interest rate hike by the Fed at its next meeting, at the end of this month. Higher interest rates in the US tend to strengthen the dollar and drive away investors from emerging markets, such as Brazil, in addition to increasing the pressure to maintain high interest rates here.
The Fed's Beige Book also comes under the spotlight. The report brings together reports from companies and experts to show how economic activity is going in different regions of the United States and may provide clues about the institution's next steps in managing American interest rates.
See below for more details on the day at the market.
Dollar
Accumulated for the week: +0.71%;
Accumulated for the month: -2.99%;
Accumulated for the year: -8.54%.
Ibovespa
Accumulated for the week: -1.07%
Accumulated for the month: +11.07%;
Year to date: +28.39%.
Global Scholarships
In Asia, Chinese shares ended Wednesday's session at their lowest level in more than a year, as a sell-off in shares related to the artificial intelligence supply chain intensified and as investors reflected on the country's new inflation data.
The SSEC, the Shanghai index, fell 0.9%, while the CSI300, the index that brings together the largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzen, fell 1.4%. Among the other indices in the region, Japan's Nikkei lost 0.05% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.1%. Kospi, from South Korea, had losses of 0.44%.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Release of the Quaest survey at 6pm
Very likely · Within hours

City Hall regulated the payment of tax and non-tax debts in up to 48 installments. The measure offers discounts on late payment interest, but excludes debts in an advanced stage of judicial collection and specific cases such as ITIV.

Sefaz-MA extended the Refis 2026 deadline for IPVA debts until December 31, 2025 until October 30. There is a 100% discount on interest and fines for paying in cash or 60% for paying in up to 12 installments.
The deadline for banks to return R$1.325 billion to 26.5 million bettors after the closure of online betting platforms determined by provisional measure ends this Wednesday (14).

The Lula government launched the Prospera MEI package, which includes forgiveness of tax debts of up to R$12.6 billion for 3.6 million individual microentrepreneurs, renegotiation of bank debts via Desenrola 3.0, non-refundable financial support of up to R$5 thousand through PixMEI, increase in the MEI revenue ceiling to R$110 thousand in 2027 and R$140 thousand in 2028, in addition to the exemption from invoices in transactions with individuals. The measures depend on Congressional approval or are in the drafting phase.
The Lula government's economic team estimates that the Complementary Bill that provides for the forgiveness of debts of Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEIs) registered in the Union's Active Debt will have a fiscal impact of R$3 billion in three years, with amounts of R$1.12 billion in 2027, R$1.01 billion in 2028 and R$909.4 million in 2029. The project provides for the full forgiveness of R$ 12.6 billion in debts of around 3.6 million MEIs, as long as they pay their monthly contributions on time in the six months following the law's entry into force.
The commercial dollar closed up 0.74%, quoted at R$5.023, despite the fall abroad, while the Ibovespa fell 1.04% to 206,887.52 points after historic records in the previous week. The market was influenced by profit adjustments, the electoral scenario and the mixed performance of international oil, with Brent falling and WTI rising.