Amid turbulence in the domestic and international scenarios, the dollar soared against the real and closed above R$5.65 this Thursday (12), at the highest level since June 2025. The currency was boosted by investor dissatisfaction with the fiscal package announced by the government and by the strengthening of the US currency abroad.
On the stock market, the Ibovespa retreated, mainly pressured by the fall in Banco do Brasil (BB) shares, amid the fall in profits in the third quarter. In the international market, oil also ended on a high, given tensions between the United States and Iran.
Numbers of the day
• Commercial dollar: R$5.6507 (+1.58%);
• Ibovespa: 171,324.31 points (-0.47%);
• Financial volume of the exchange: R$ 32.24 billion;
• Dollar abroad (DXY): 103.160 points (+0.28%);
• WTI oil: US$88.74 (+2.55%);
• Brent oil: US$95.82 (+3.30%).
Exchange
The commercial dollar ended the session with an appreciation of 1.58%, quoted at R$5.6507. It was the highest closing level of the US currency since June 2, 2025.
The pressure on the exchange rate occurred after the government presented, on Wednesday (11), a package of fiscal measures with a potential impact of between R$50 billion and R$60 billion in 2027. The proposals involve increasing revenue and reducing expenses, but do not foresee changes in the primary result targets.
The market's reaction was marked by concern about the scope of the measures and uncertainty about their approval in the National Congress.
Another pressure factor came from the international scene. The dollar gained strength against the main global currencies, while yields on United States Treasury bonds (Treasuries) advanced.
The movement occurred amid the reassessment of expectations for US interest rates. Authorities at the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, signaled concern about the persistence of inflation and the possibility of further rate increases.
In Brazil, the release of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) had a limited impact on the exchange rate. Official inflation rose 0.14% in October, after rising 0.82% in September. In 12 months, the indicator accumulated an increase of 4.63%.
Falling stock market
The Ibovespa ended the session down 0.47%, at 171,324.31 points. During the trading session, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange fell 1.23%, reaching 169,942.37 points. At its maximum, it scored 172,060.43 points.
The financial volume traded totaled R$32.24 billion.
The performance was mainly influenced by the fall in Banco do Brasil shares, which fell after the release of the third quarter results. The bank recorded an adjusted net profit of R$1.27 billion, a reduction of 66.5% compared to the same period in 2025, and revised downwards its profit projection for 2026.
BB shares fell 8.35%, to R$15.48. The devaluation took shares to the lowest closing price since April 2023.
Petrobras shares, with greater weight in the Ibovespa index, rose, following the appreciation of oil on the international market. Ordinary shares (voting at a shareholders' meeting) increased in value by 2.55%. Preferred papers (with preference in the distribution of dividends) advanced 2.64%, following the appreciation of oil on the international market.
In addition to corporate balance sheets, investors followed the tax proposals presented by the federal government. The package foresees an impact of up to R$60 billion in 2027 and remained on the market's radar during the session.
Oil on the rise
Oil futures contracts closed higher this Thursday, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties involving relations between the United States and Iran.
A reference for international negotiations, the Brent barrel for January rose 3.30%, closing at US$95.82.
WTI oil for December, a benchmark in the United States, advanced 2.55% and closed at US$88.74 per barrel.
The movement gained strength after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington does not need an agreement with Tehran. The declaration reduced expectations of diplomatic progress between the two countries.
Reports of attacks on Iranian territory and new drone offensives against Saudi oil company Aramco facilities also contributed to the rise in oil prices.
* with information from Reuters
