Donald Tusk's strategy - a joint electoral list of coalition parties - is perceived as an attempt to create a kind of "rescue plan from PiS". Implementing this concept may be difficult because the interests of the individual parties that make up the current ruling camp are no longer the same as before the 2023 elections.
During the meeting of the leaders of the coalition parties on August 10, Donald Tusk was to convince the partners to run together in the parliamentary elections in 2027. Such a move would reduce the risk of losing seats by smaller parties that may have problems with crossing the electoral threshold.
This is also important because of the way seats are divided in Poland. In elections to the Sejm, the d'Hondt method is used, which rewards larger committees. A joint start by the parties of the current ruling camp could therefore increase their ability to win seats, even if the overall electoral result did not change significantly.
In this way, Tusk responds to a similar idea put forward by Jarosław Kaczyński. The PiS leader also spoke about the need to create a joint list of right-wing parties that could fight for the first place in the elections.
This first place can be very important. In a system based on the d'Hondt method, a larger party may obtain more seats than would result from the percentage result alone. The possible unification of both camps may significantly influence who will be able to form a government after the elections.
However, Tusk's plan has serious limitations. It is unlikely that all parties that supported the formation of a government after the 2023 elections will return to a broad agreement. This applies primarily to the Razem Party, which remains outside the ruling coalition and may decide to run on its own.
The future of Poland 2050 is also uncertain due to the tensions between Donald Tusk and the leader of this group, Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, and the currently very low ratings of Poland 2050. The group would receive from 0.5 to 1.5 percent. support. In practice, talks on a joint list would concern primarily the Civic Platform and its coalition partners from PSL and the Left.
One of the most interesting elements of the script is the potential role of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. PSL, whose leader is the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, may be interested in a joint start, because its independent ratings do not allow for sleep peacefully before the elections. For the People's Party, an alliance with a larger party would be a way to reduce the risk of electoral defeat.
Kosiniak-Kamysz could become Tusk's successor as prime minister in the future and head the joint electoral list. The PSL leader is perceived as one of the more right-wing politicians of the current ruling camp, so his candidacy could help reach the moderate right-wing electorate, including some former PiS voters.
However, any bet on Kosiniak-Kamysz as the face of the wide block would have its price. It could make it difficult to create a joint list with the Left at the same time. The Left is currently one of the stronger partners of the current government - its support is around 7-7.5 percent, which gives it a real chance to enter the Sejm on its own. In such a situation, the party may not be interested in giving up part of its political identity to a broad bloc dominated by KO and PSL.
Moreover, a similar problem concerns program differences. A common list of groups with very different profiles may mobilize some voters, but at the same time discourage others.
Tusk's plan must be analyzed in the context of the actions of his political opponents. The right-wing opposition is also considering creating a common bloc. However, there are also serious obstacles here. The right wing may have trouble gaining a parliamentary majority without the participation of Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Crown of Poland. However, such an alliance would be difficult to accept for part of PiS and Mateusz Morawiecki's circle due to the political and international consequences.
An additional obstacle is the relationship between the groups themselves. The split in PiS and mutual accusations may hinder cooperation between Jarosław Kaczyński's party and the new grouping associated with Mateusz Morawiecki. In turn, some Confederation voters are definitely hostile to both PiS and Morawiecki's circle.
A factor that may favor the unification of the right is President Karol Nawrocki. If right-wing parties win in the parliamentary elections, the president could gain significant influence on the shape of the future government. Nawrocki is particularly interested in an agreement between right-wing parties, which, however, would mean the need to reconcile the groups that are currently in conflict with each other. At the moment, this scenario is almost impossible.
In the background of this political puzzle there is also the issue of Polish-Ukrainian relations. "Europejska Pravda" presents next year's elections as a potentially important moment for the further shape of Warsaw's policy towards Kiev. The portal indicates that the victory of right-wing groups gathered around Karol Nawrocki could mean further deterioration of relations with Ukraine.
This does not mean, however, that the election result is certain, as both the ruling camp and the right-wing opposition have problems with creating coherent, broad electoral blocs.
