After drone attacks, Saudi Arabia also has to shut down a central oil pipeline - previously an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil and therefore fuel prices in Germany could rise significantly.
The expanding conflict in the Middle East is putting massive pressure on the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. After the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the increasing threat to the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the Houthi militia in Yemen, the kingdom also has to shut down an important pipeline following drone attacks. A resulting additional reduction in Saudi exports could cause the price of oil and thus gasoline prices in Germany to rise even further.
The east-west pipeline, which can bring large amounts of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea bypassing the effectively blocked Strait of Hormuz, was shut down as a precaution after attacks on the line in the Riyadh and Medina regions. The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced on Platform X that night that the drone attack, which was launched from Iraq, had caused damage and injured several people.
It was not revealed who was behind the attack. Some Iranian-backed militias operate in Iraq. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said it would not take any steps against the attackers in Iraq at the request of the neighboring country. First, the Iraqi authorities would have the chance to take measures themselves to avoid future attacks.
The attacks on the pipeline hit Saudi Arabia at a very sensitive point: up to seven million barrels of oil per day - one barrel is equivalent to 159 liters - can be pumped via the more than 1,200 kilometer long pipes from the Persian Gulf region for shipment west to the Red Sea. Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February and the subsequent widespread blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats and attacks on ships, Saudi Arabia has tried to use the pipeline to prevent an even greater slump in its oil exports.
US media such as CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported that the attacks probably hit pipeline pumping stations. They relied on satellite images that show that there were fires there. How extensive the damage is and when it can be repaired initially remained unclear. The pipeline infrastructure had already been attacked in April, as a result of which the capacity of the pipes had to be temporarily reduced.
Before the war, Saudi Arabia was the second largest oil producer behind the United States and the world's top exporter of the raw material, which is central to the entire global economy. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's most important alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, shipping via the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait towards Asia, is also increasingly at risk. The Iran-allied Houthi rebels seized Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and strategically important islands, according to Yemeni government sources. This means that the Houthis now have significantly more access to Bab al-Mandab. A Houthi spokesman assured on Friday that shipping safety would be guaranteed - but that did not apply to Saudi ships.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. Both are part of one of the most important shipping routes in the world, which runs from the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, making it the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. The Houthi militia has repeatedly attacked ships there in the past.
“Oil price could rise towards $120”
The Houthi advance and the damage to the pipeline could push oil prices towards $120 per barrel, analyst Hamad Hussain from the consulting firm Capital Economics told the Wall Street Journal. Ultimately, this also depends on the extent of the damage to the pipeline. Some analysts believe that even higher oil prices are possible if the conflict continues for a longer period of time. However, it is still well below the annual high of around $126, which was reached at the end of April.
The price of crude oil has recently increased significantly again. The price for a barrel of the reference Brent crude from the North Sea for delivery in November temporarily reached almost 110 US dollars on Friday. Before the Iran war, oil prices were around $70 per barrel in February. At that time, around a fifth of global oil and liquid gas exports still went through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the east of Saudi Arabia, the passage from the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz is largely blocked, in the west Bab al-Mandab is closed - this massively restricts possible export routes. The passage through the bottleneck of the Suez Canal remains open. However, transport to customers in Asia from the Saudi west coast across the canal and the Mediterranean and around Africa takes several weeks longer and is correspondingly more expensive. And this export route also partly requires a functioning east-west pipeline, because the largest Saudi oil fields are in the east, closer to the Persian Gulf.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait is even narrower than the Strait of Hormuz, being only about 20 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. Therefore, it is unlikely to be possible to establish a corridor there that is relatively safe from attacks - unlike in the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast, as the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) writes in an analysis.
The Houthis' ability to "threaten shipping in the Bab al-Mandab offers Iran an alternative to disrupting the global energy market," the institute writes. Thanks to their new positions along the coast and on an island directly in the strait, the Houthis could also threaten shipping with drones that have comparatively short ranges but can transport explosives, according to the ISW. For example, hexacopters, i.e. small drones with six propellers, could be used.
A conflict that has been going on for years has flared up again in Yemen. The Houthis are fighting against the internationally recognized government and its allies. They belong to the Iranian “Axis of Resistance,” a regional network of Iranian-backed militias. Tehran supports the Houthis with weapons, technology, expertise and money, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the other side are the Yemeni government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia, and forces loyal to the government.
