Israel has provided the United States with intelligence that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its opponents. The information was met with concern among some American officials, and deep skepticism among others, according to American and regional officials.
Some American officials believe that this information is part of a pressure campaign launched by the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to persuade the Trump administration to return to major combat operations against Iran.
Other officials believe that the threats deserve to be taken seriously, in light of a series of recent warnings about Iranian preparations to attack American interests.
Israel shared some of this information with regional officials. A number of them doubted that Iran was making plans to use chemical weapons, and saw that Israel was trying to push the United States and its partners into a more intense phase of the war.
American accusations that Iran possesses chemical weapons, or seeks to manufacture them, are not new. It goes back decades. In 2003, Iran admitted that it had developed chemical capabilities during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, but said it later dismantled them.
In recent years, the United States has said publicly, in its annual unclassified intelligence assessments, that Iran “likely aims” to continue chemical weapons research and development.
Iran publicly denies possessing chemical weapons, and has previously described these accusations as a psychological war waged by Israel and Netanyahu.
All those interviewed by the newspaper for this report spoke on the condition that their identities not be revealed, given the secrecy of Israeli information, the sensitivity of Iranian planning, and the secrecy of American discussions.
Tense moment
After eight months of war, the United States and Iran stand in what looks like a waiting state. They are exploring the possibility of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough, while at the same time preparing for renewed war.
The controversy over the new information reveals the extent of the tension of the moment, and the possibility of making a serious error in calculations. American officials say that the Trump administration does not intend to use a nuclear weapon, but Iranian officials are not so sure about that.
Netanyahu is fighting a battle for political survival, after failing to secure a clear path to forming a government in last week's elections. Some analysts believe that the veteran leader may seek to use the security emergency as leverage to force opposition leaders to join him in a coalition.
Over the past two weeks, Israeli officials, in conversations with US spy agencies and other officials, have portrayed the threat of chemical weapons as more urgent than Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The Home Front Command, the Israeli military unit responsible for emergency response and civilian direction, is conducting training exercises across Israel this week. But preparing for a chemical attack is not a major part of it.
The command did not issue extensive reminders to its officers or the public of safety guidelines in the face of this possibility, according to two officials in the unit who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The Israeli army refused to comment.
In recent weeks, the US military has amassed a huge arsenal in the region, including warships, fighters, and bombers, ready to launch a relatively short campaign of intense strikes after the midterm elections, if President Donald Trump authorizes it.
At the same time, American diplomats and others are trying to reach an agreement with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, addresses Tehran's nuclear program, and postpones any additional military action. The military mobilization may be directed to support this effort as much as it is a preparation for a return to war.
Iran has intensified its attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hoping to exert maximum economic pressure on the United States before Tuesday's elections.
Memory of the war with Iraq
The use of chemical weapons carries a special sensitivity to Iran, as it is one of the few countries that suffered its effects. During the war with Iraq, Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons that killed thousands and left health problems that lasted decades among about 100,000 Iranian veterans and civilians, according to Iranian experts.
US intelligence agencies have long tracked Iran's development of chemical weapons, which are prohibited under international law.
Israeli intelligence services informed their American counterparts that they believe that Iran is moving quickly to develop technology that would allow these weapons to be installed on a missile, or smuggled to Israel or to another country for use in an attack, according to American officials.
The talk about an Iranian chemical threat, among some American officials, recalled the erroneous American intelligence information in 2002 about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
By then, Iraq had largely abandoned or frozen its nuclear, chemical, and biological programs. But US intelligence agencies informed the White House, during the era of President George W. Bush, that their assessment that Iraq possessed these weapons was conclusive and beyond doubt.
Do you use it?
The opinions of those who were informed of the new information varied regarding Iran’s speed in deploying a chemical weapon, and the extent of its effectiveness in doing so.
Installing a chemical weapon on a ballistic missile is not difficult, according to weapons experts and American officials, but the difficulty lies in ensuring that the weapon deploys the chemical agent effectively. Smuggling a bomb across the border also poses challenges.
Using a drone to deliver a chemical weapon remains another possibility.
A regional official said that Israel presented to the Arab Gulf states allegations that Iran is working to make its chemical weapons ready for operational use. He added that Israeli officials did not provide evidence, but rather presented their assessments, which Gulf governments found not serious.
There is little debate within the US intelligence community about Iran's development of chemical weapons. But there is great controversy over whether its leaders will one day use it, especially if they are not provoked by additional attacks.
The US Director of National Intelligence warned in 2024 that “Iran likely aims to continue research and development of chemical and biological agents for offensive purposes.”
Dana Stroul, the chief Middle East policy official at the Pentagon during the Biden administration, said that it has been known for more than two decades that Iran has stored components for chemical weapons, but has never used them.
But Stroul, who currently works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Iran may feel “under existential pressure, and may have crossed the line into direct offensive use of these unconventional weapons.”
The United States monitors a variety of Iranian threats. Intelligence gathering intensified after the discovery of an Iranian plan to attack a military base in Britain used by American warplanes.
On October 23, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent a memo to Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, warning of the risk of Iranian attacks. American diplomats and other employees were then placed on high alert.
US agencies estimate that the threat facing Americans in the Middle East and a number of other countries has reached its highest levels since the war began in late February, according to US officials.
The US Central Command (Centcom) has a plan to strike Iran that may begin on Wednesday, after the midterm elections, and when three aircraft carriers are in the region, according to US officials.
The ideal conditions for the campaign established by the army will last only a short time. After early November, one of the aircraft carriers will need to return to its home port. The beginning of November also witnesses moonless nights, which is the complete darkness that the American army prefers to launch its attacks.
Economic pressure
Some members of Trump's government demanded that the economic pressure campaign be given more time to bear fruit. They say that the American blockade and sanctions will eventually bring down the Iranian government.
But other officials point out that Iran has withstood the pressure campaign, and that there are few indications that its government will collapse without additional military attacks.
Stephanie Walker, a senior official for national security and intelligence at the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), said last week that the Iranian threat to American interests “is currently a major focus of the entire US government.”
She added that Tehran's goals include espionage, influence and cyber attacks. This summer, Iranian-linked hackers targeted dozens of water systems across the United States, prompting some counties to call on residents to boil water before using it.
Iran has also tried to impersonate people online to trick acquaintances into giving it access to sensitive information. Walker said that artificial intelligence has made this type of deception much easier, “especially with voice phishing,” that is, call fraud.
Walker said, at a national security conference in Sea Island, Georgia, last week that the war “changed Iran’s calculations about what it is prepared to do here against us.”
*“The New York Times Service”
A group of former senior Israeli military officials helped Palestinian farmers, on Tuesday, harvest olives, in a gesture of solidarity amid the escalation of violence committed by extremist settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, according to what was reported by Reuters news agency.
Former general Eyal Ben Reuven, who likened extremist settler attacks to “massacres,” said: “When I see what is happening here, and when I see these men coming... and beating women and children, what comes to my mind is what my parents used to tell me about the period in which the Jewish people suffered.”
Ben Reuven added that he began several months ago to organize a group of about 30 senior military officials, including six generals, following the escalation of violence committed by settlers, which many Palestinians say the Israeli army allows them to commit.
The Israeli army announced that it condemns the violence and is working to maintain security in the West Bank.
Former Colonel Doron Meinert said: “The occupation is the main problem of Israeli society. I think we have to deal with it, we can't ignore it. We must try to solve it with the Palestinians.”
Ben Reuven and others also expressed concern about the impact of settler violence on Israel's global reputation.
Former Brigadier General Jonathan Yoni said he sympathizes with the suffering of Palestinian farmers, and opposes Israel's annexation of the West Bank. He added: “This creates problems for the State of Israel in the West and the United States at the strategic and tactical levels.”
“The army protects the settlers”
Nimr Nazzal, a landowner near the town of Qusra where former soldiers were providing assistance, said that without them it would have been impossible for him to access his olive trees due to settler attacks. He added that their presence “protects us and helps us.” “If it were not for them, we would not have been able to reach our land.”
Nazzal explained that many settler attacks were supported by the Israeli army. “The (Israeli) army is the protector of the settlers,” he said.
The Israeli human rights organization Yesh Din recorded 180 physical attacks on Palestinian olive harvesters within 35 days since the start of the harvest season. The organization explained that the Israeli army was present in more than 23 percent of the cases of violence committed by settlers that the organization recorded.
Palestinians say that when they contact the Israeli army, it either responds late or comes to the aid of settlers who commit acts of violence. The army denies this.
Meinert, who now devotes most of his time to volunteer work in the West Bank in support of the Palestinians, said that the Israeli army helped the settlers.
Meinert added that some Israeli soldiers embrace the belief of extremist settlers that only Jews “have the right to this area, and that Arabs should be expelled or remain there as second-class residents.”
The West Bank is inhabited by about half a million Israeli settlers and at least three million Palestinians. United Nations organizations and most countries consider the settlements illegal under international law relating to military occupation.
Israel rejects this characterization. The lands are disputed and not occupied.
