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Back美烏俄會談落幕 終戰有譜
美烏俄會談落幕 終戰有譜
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自由时报26 minutes agoWorld3 min readChinaView translation

美烏俄會談落幕 終戰有譜

澤倫斯基稱或可在二〇二七年前結束戰爭

Quick Look

美国特使库希纳和魏科夫抵达俄罗斯与普京会面,要求俄方就未来与欧洲安全提出新安全协议草案,概述降低紧张的措施。乌俄在阿布达比同意进行可能是开战以来最大规模换俘,澤倫斯基表示或可在二〇二七年前结束战争。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美国斡旋与乌克兰、俄罗斯的三方会谈结束后,美国特使库希纳和魏科夫抵达俄罗斯与普京会面。多年来俄罗斯一直寻求限制北约扩张并缩减在东欧军事部署的欧洲安全协议,过去美国一直拒绝这些要求,但现在持开放态度。

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美国斡旋与乌克兰、俄罗斯的三方会谈落幕后,美国特使库希纳和魏科夫十二日抵达俄罗斯与俄国总统普廷会面。消息人士指出,美国在会谈中要求俄国,针对未来与欧洲安全提出新的安全协议草案,概述俄国准备采取哪些措施降低与欧洲的紧张。

普廷在克里姆林宫会晤美国特使时表示,俄罗斯不会对终结俄乌战争的强硬要求与领土诉求让步,此一发言令和平前景蒙上阴影。库希纳和魏科夫随后转往爱尔兰都柏林,向正在当地与欧洲领袖会面的乌国总统澤倫斯基说明。美乌都透露现在有机会朝结束战争迈进。库希纳说,「我们看见一些可能性和机会」;澤倫斯基在爱尔兰表示,或许「有机会」在二〇二七年前结束这场与俄罗斯的战争。

美国新闻网站Axios引述两名消息人士说法,欧俄达成新安全架构协议是阿布达比会谈一个主要议题。俄国谈判人员表示,普廷侵略乌国是因为当时美国总统拜登未回复他二〇二一年信函所提安全顾虑;库希纳和魏科夫向俄方表示,二〇二一年后世界已经改变很多,他们提议俄国起草一份新的欧洲安全架构协议,当中不仅提出俄国安全顾虑,也要概述莫斯科愿意采取的「对等措施」降低情势并且使欧洲放心;此外,两人也告诉俄国,欧洲安全议题需允许欧洲代表参与未来的终战和谈。

多年来俄国一直寻求一份欧洲安全协议,当中限制北大西洋公约组织(NATO)扩张,并且缩减在东欧军事部署。过去美国一直拒绝这些要求,但是现在显然持开放态度,将这些要求纳入结束俄乌战争协议。许多欧洲政府对美国这种作法深感疑虑。欧盟执委会主席馮德萊恩在阿布达比会谈前就表示,唯有在战争结束后,欧洲才会讨论一份新的安全架构。

乌俄在阿布达比会谈同意进行可能是开战以来最大规模换俘,但具体数字要待美国特使分别与两国领袖会面后决定。澤倫斯基透露人数可能在各一〇〇〇或一二〇〇人之谱。

这次会谈是乌、俄两国官员九个月以来首次直接对话,在场一名消息人士说,会谈气氛紧绷、时而情绪激动,乌俄双方都表达不满;库希纳和魏科夫则努力降温,明言会谈目标是达成可提供两国领袖的选项,谈判才开始变得比较有建设性。

俄国迄今不愿让欧洲参与和谈,首席谈判代表梅丁思基直言,「我不了解能和他们讨论什么」;莫斯科的目标是举行「新版雅尔达会议」,指一九四五年西方领袖和苏联瓜分欧洲会议,俄国愿与欧洲达成广泛安全协议,作为终战协议的一部分。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 美国特使将分别与俄乌领袖会面后决定换俘具体数字

    Likely · Within days

  • 俄罗斯将起草新的欧洲安全架构协议

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 换俘的具体数字是多少?
  • 新安全协议草案的具体内容是什么?
  • 欧洲是否会被允许参与未来的终战和谈?
  • 普京是否会在任何条件下就领土问题让步?

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