Economists raise inflation, interest and dollar forecasts until 2029 in the first Focus with the impact of Lula's victory

Economists increased their interest, inflation and dollar forecasts for Brazil from this year to 2029 in the first Focus bulletin with the impact of Lula's victory in the elections held on October 25th. The previous survey, released on October 26, had been closed before the second round.

In this Tuesday's bulletin (3), analysts raised their expectations for the Selic for the year to 13.5%. Last week, the outlook was 13.25%, with cuts of 0.25 percentage points expected at the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meetings in November and December.

Now, economists maintained the reduction of the current rate from 13.75% to 13.5% at this week's meeting, with the result announced this Wednesday (4). However, they believe that the December meeting should keep the rate at 13.5%.

The prospects for the next three years rose to 12.5% ​​in 2027 (it was 11.75%), 11% in 2028 (it was 10% last week) and 10.25% in 2029 (from 10%).

Furthermore, economists raised forecasts for inflation this year (5.22%) and in the next three years: 4.76% in 2027, 4% in 2028 and 3.98% in 2029, and also raised the outlook for the dollar to R$5.34 in 2026, compared to R$5.05 last week.