Increase in global oil supply in October

According to IEA's Oil Market Report for October, despite the sharp increase in tanker attacks, the production of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producing countries, increased by 2 million 390 thousand barrels per day on a monthly basis, reaching 44 million 60 thousand barrels.

The increase in OPEC+ production was influenced by the recovery of supply in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The increase in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's increase in shipments via the East-West oil pipeline supported the increase in supply in the region.

Supply outside OPEC+ decreased by 90 thousand barrels per day to 61 million 300 thousand barrels. Maintenance work in some important fields in Brazil and the decrease in offshore oil production due to Hurricane Isaias in the USA were effective in the decrease outside OPEC+.

Thus, global oil supply increased by 2 million 300 thousand barrels per day in October compared to the previous month, reaching 105 million 360 thousand barrels.

A decrease in global oil supply is expected this year

IEA expects global oil supply this year to be approximately 101 million 600 thousand barrels, a decrease of 4 million 700 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous year. Next year, it is expected to increase by approximately 6 million 500 thousand barrels per day, reaching 108 million 100 thousand barrels.

According to the IEA report, the recovery forecast for next year in global oil supply remains fragile due to the risks posed by attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime transportation in the Middle East in terms of exports and production.

Global oil demand is expected to decrease by 2.7 million barrels per day this year

IEA estimates that global oil demand will decrease by 2 million 684 thousand barrels this year, reaching an average of 102 million 285 thousand barrels per day.

Demand is expected to contract in the first months of next year, but increase again around March. Thus, global oil demand is expected to reach 104 million 297 thousand barrels with an increase of 2 million 12 thousand barrels per day next year.

It is estimated that approximately 80 percent of the demand increase next year will come from LPG, ethane and naphtha as supply chains return to normal. A very limited increase is predicted for transportation fuels, as high prices accelerate electrification and fuel efficiency in the vehicle park.