After the Adamuz tragedy, the Government distributed a document with graphics in which it defended itself against criticism for the lack of renewal of the railway infrastructure with an argument pattern similar to that of other crises, such as the blackout. He indirectly accused the Executives of the Popular Party of the accident for sinking investment, whether in improvements, security or maintenance. The report, widely shared on social networks by accounts close to the PSOE, constructed an exculpatory story based on very partial data. Its true virtue lies in the fact that it serves as a starting point to break down the real expenditure items, which speak volumes about the infrastructure situation.
The summary is that the increase in investment and maintenance between the crisis cycle (2012-2017) and the recovery cycle (2018-2025) is marginal, while the increase in network use is exponential. In addition to being scarce, the real jump only came from 2023 and too late: when the trains of the three operators -Renfe, Iryo and Ouigo- were already circulating on the tracks. According to the document distributed by La Moncloa, with Pedro Sánchez at the head of the country, the railway network had recovered the spending figures of 2011, around 5,600 million euros, after falling to a minimum of 1,750 with Mariano Rajoy in 2016. The source was Adif and, certainly, its data corresponds to the officials. However, when comparing such long periods it is mandatory to adjust them for inflation, which is called going from current or nominal prices to constant or real prices.
Since it is an infrastructure, it is not useful to discount the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but rather the so-called implicit civil works deflator must be applied, which includes the costs of materials or workers' salaries. Buying steel in 2011 is not the same as buying steel in 2026. The increase in costs between 2011 and 2025 is more than 31%. Therefore, investment and maintenance spending between the last year of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, with the State falling into recession, and 2025 has only grown by 4.1% in nominal terms, but has fallen by 20% in constant euros.
With the net numbers, the average of Mariano Rajoy's two terms in office is barely 2.2% lower than Sánchez's two terms before the tragedies. In all these years, maintenance spending has never exceeded 20% of the total item between spending and investment, which makes sense because, despite the crisis, between 2011 and 2025, 1,180 kilometers have come into operation: about 550 in the Rajoy era and the rest in the Pedro Sánchez era. In real terms, spending on network maintenance is only 5% higher today than in 2011.
The political factor
From the chronological analysis of the magnitudes, it is striking that the authentic investment well does not occur in the darkest moments of the great financial crisis, but when the country enters a political collapse in 2016, the year in which the PP revalidates an insufficient majority and Pedro Sánchez, then as leader of the opposition, blocks the formation of the Government with his famous "no means no."
The extension of the Budgets of that year and the one that occurs in subsequent years due to the motion of censure causes the public funds that were allocated to investment and maintenance to be lower. For example, in 2012, with GDP collapsing by 2.9%, investment was more than double that of 2016, with the economy growing at that same figure. The most noticeable increase occurs from 2023 onwards with European funds operating at full capacity.
This temporal sequence is very important. The definitive investment leap occurs subsequently and not in preparation for the great transformation of the railway market. In addition to the change in the economic cycle and political instability, what distinguishes both stages is that, in the second, passenger traffic increased by 98% due to the entry of the operators Ouigo, on May 10, 2021, and Iryo, on November 25, 2022.
Although the Government describes them as private operators, neither of them are strictly speaking. Ouigo is 100% owned by SNCF, the French public company, while the Italian State controls 51% of Iryo through Trenitalia. The other 49% is shared by Air Nostrum and Globalia.
The opening to competition of these operators with Renfe has depressed the price (-40%) of tickets and has increased convoy traffic by 47%. High speed has gone from transporting 23.7 million passengers in 2022 to 44.5 million in 2025, according to the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC). Compared to 2022, the number of passengers transported has increased by 98% and compared to 2020, by 238%. In addition to the deliberate confusion between the nature of the operators, there is another of a similar nature, which is attributing the situation of the network to liberalization.
Judith Arnal, researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute (RIE), points out that "liberalization, which is increasing competition regardless of who owns the company, cannot be confused with privatization, which means that the company that provides the service passes into private hands." Arnal recalls that Spain spends "96,000 euros per kilometer to renew and maintain the railway network, half of the European Union average, which is 191,000 euros." The RIE researcher dissociates these data from the possible causes of the accidents, but "what they show is that traffic has grown at a much faster rate than the expenditure on maintaining the network."
The truth is that the debate about a possible reversal in the competition of the railway network based on how the private is contaminating the public only exists in the arguments of the commentators closest to the Government. A network of 4,000 kilometers for a State the size of Spain can only go bankrupt if what, in railway terms, is called "level of occupation and use" is not increased. Since the arrival of Ouigo and Iryo, occupancy went from 64.5% of the network to 88.5% and the use of the infrastructure from an economically unbearable 53% to the current 76%.
That is to say, an underused infrastructure like the Spanish one is only viable with more use and this is explained by the fees that Adif charges operators. According to CNMC data, the only currently profitable line is the one between Madrid and Barcelona, which generates 674 million in ticket sales and 635 million in costs. Of them, 46% (290 million) constitute the payment of royalties to the state public company. On the rest of the main lines, the revenue from tickets is still not enough to cover the fees and the rest of the costs. Adif receives nearly 800 million euros in royalties. Most are paid for by Renfe, which continues to be the one with the largest market share.
Another transformation that has occurred with the arrival of Ouigo and Iryo is that of the new trains. Experts consulted by this newspaper consider that the use of infrastructure must take into account the so-called TKB or gross tons per kilometer. Current convoys exceed 450 tons to increase their performance and generate greater wear on the tracks, which should be accompanied by an improvement in maintenance that has not yet occurred.
Perhaps the parameter that accumulates the most variables to compare periods is the one that divides the investment between kilometers and travelers. This currently stands at 13.7 cents, which is somewhat higher than that of 2014. However, it is still approximately half that of 2011, although more concentrated on high speed.
An aspect that is often not taken into account is that despite the glory of high speed as a symbol of Spanish progress, 81% of use is concentrated on Cercanías trains, according to the CNMC.
In any case, the figures are consistent with the collapse of investment that has occurred in infrastructure in the last 20 years and which has gone from more than 750 euros per year per inhabitant to around 265, according to data from economist Santiago Calvo. The decline affects all segments, from hydraulic works to roads, and occurs at a time when the country's population has gone from around 44 million in 2016 to the current 50 million.
