El Niño is expected to cause above-average rainfall in Paraná until March 2027. The information was released by the state's Environmental Technology and Monitoring System (Simepar) this Thursday (12), when the agency published the climatological update report regarding the phenomenon.
According to Simepar, the biggest impact of El Niño on the climate conditions in Paraná should be this month of November and December, mainly in the central and western regions, and on the coast.
However, the entire state must be affected; The scenario changes depending on the month, and the agency released maps that show the influence of the phenomenon in each region.
"The temperature reached 2.5°C above average in the Niño 3.4 region, a reference area for monitoring El Niño by the American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Warming has been consistent since April this year, and in June it was confirmed that the phenomenon was already active. In October, it had already reached the highest category, and remains established as a very strong El Niño", explains Simepar.
The organization adds that the analysis of several international institutes corroborates the prediction that El Niño will continue to strengthen until the beginning of 2027, when it gradually begins to lose strength. However, according to NOAA, the chance that this will be the biggest El Niño since 1950 has dropped to 60% (in the analysis carried out in October, the chance was 83%).
In Paraná, between November and March, Simepar predicts that the impact of El Niño will be mainly on the above-average volume of rain in all regions. Heavy rains are expected in a short period of time, and more severe storms accompanied by strong winds, hail and lightning.
"In November, this impact was already clear: Simepar teams classified a tornado in Maringá and atmospheric microexplosions in Curitiba, Piraquara, Pinhais, São José dos Pinhais, Araucária, Clevelândia and Tijucas do Sul, only in the first seven days of the month."
In November, cities in the Southwest can record rainfall volumes between 320 mm and 360 mm. In the Central and Western regions of the State, the forecast is for rainfall volumes exceeding 240 mm. In December, the volume of rain also increases on the Paraná Coast, where rainfall is expected to accumulate between 220 mm and 240 mm. The largest predicted volume continues to be in the Southwest, where some cities may once again reach values above 320 mm.
In January, the scenario changes a little. The highest volumes of rain predicted in Paraná are close to 260 mm in cities on the Coast, West and Southwest. In February, the only region that can come close to these values is the Coast. In March, rainfall volumes should not exceed 240 mm in any region of the State.
Although El Niño influences the behavior of precipitation and temperature in Paraná, Simepar emphasizes that daily and continuous monitoring of weather forecasts and their updates are essential, as the specific periods in which rain episodes will occur depend on the types of systems operating in the region (cold fronts, low pressure systems or semi-stationary systems, for example).
"Even the most intense episodes of El Niño do not necessarily produce the same impacts in all regions. However, stronger events increase the probability of the occurrence of weather patterns normally associated with the phenomenon", explains Simepar.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that causes abnormal warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean and influences the climate in different parts of the world. Historically, it is associated with above-average rainfall in the South Region, with an increase in the frequency of severe meteorological events such as intense windstorms, hail, floods and flash floods and, consequently, landslides.
State Civil Defense monitoring is carried out 24 hours a day with the support of Simepar meteorologists. The structure of the State Center for Risk and Disaster Management monitors the conditions for sending alerts in the event of more severe conditions. To receive Civil Defense alerts on your cell phone, you must register for free. You must send your zip code by SMS to the number 40199 to be able to receive the messages. It is also possible to receive alerts via WhatsApp. To do this, it is necessary to register the number 61 2034-2611 and interact with the number, being able to register using the zip code, municipality or location.
