El Niño intensifies - increased risks of extreme weather worldwide

El Niño is a naturally recurring phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which has a strong impact on weather in a large part of the world. A new analysis by the WMO states that the phenomenon will intensify and have a major impact on rain and temperatures, with increased risks of flooding in some places, but also drought and extreme heat elsewhere.

The risk of El Niño lasting until at least February next year is basically one hundred percent, even if the peak is expected to be reached around the turn of the year.

The name of the phenomenon – the baby boy – refers to the birth of the baby Jesus, Christmas time, when El Niño is usually at its strongest. But despite the cute name, El Niño can have a massive impact on societies and economies worldwide, warns WMO director Celeste Saulo in a press release:

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation from drought and flooding, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies," she says.

El Niño is about the winds over the Pacific stopping or turning east, which causes warm surface water to spread towards the western part of South America.

The complex interaction with the atmosphere normally leads to drier weather over the Amazon, a warmer Caribbean and northwestern North America, while the southern United States becomes colder and wetter. Southeast Asia will generally be hot and dry, while large parts of Australia will also be dry and hot.

Scientists have had difficulty seeing links to climate change because the phenomenon itself varies, but a recent study published in Science suggests that El Niño is intensifying in a warmer world, and that the variation is already 37 percent greater than in a pre-industrial world.