The growing El Niño weather phenomenon to Australia’s east is already breaking heat records, with forecasts showing it will likely easily surpass previous events, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, as seperate research suggested climate change had greatly shortened the odds of the event hitting record extremes.
On Thursday the UN’s weather agency said the event in the Pacific was continuing to strengthen and would probably persist until early 2027, warning it had the “potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world”.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
In an update this week, the Bureau of Meteorology said the El Niño was now forecast to peak in late spring or summer and “reach levels above the warmest observed since reliable records began in 1950”.
El Niño events tend to mean hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s south and east in winter and spring, and can increase the risk of heatwaves, drought and bushfires.
El Niño strength is assessed by analysing sea surface temperatures in a region of the equatorial Pacific known as Niño 3.4. The bureau has said the strength of an El Niño does not necessarily mean stronger effects for the continent.
However, bureau analysis of the unfolding event suggested this El Niño had already broken records.
“We have been looking at the rate of warming observed in the last two months and it has been faster than any other event. Not only is it strong, but it has escalated rapidly,” said Felicity Gamble, a senior climatologist at the BoM.
Gamble said the relative sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region for the month of August were likely to be between 2.2C and 2.3C above average – higher than any previous August since 1950 (the year after which records are considered to be more reliable).
Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter
She said forecasts were suggesting relative sea surface temperatures in that region could peak over 3C above average, compared to the highest previous figure of 2.6C observed in January 1983.
Gamble said the relative sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region had warmed by more than 2C between February and July.
She said: “No other period in the historical record exceeds that. This is the first event where we have had that change exceed 2C in the space of six months.
“We could be seeing a record in terms of the strength, and also the rate of warming and the duration.”
Climate experts have said El Niño will likely combine with climate change to push global temperatures to record highs next year.
Gamble said in the Pacific region, El Niño was already contributing to droughts in Papua New Guinea, with food and water shortages and major wildfires in Indonesia.
This winter was Australia’s third-warmest on record and the hottest on record for New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria.
Scientists at the University of Melbourne have released preliminary research into the influence of climate change on the predicted peak of the El Niño. By analysing historical records and comparing climate models with and without the influence of greenhouse gas emissions, the scientists found climate change had made “an event of this magnitude” six times more likely.
The study has been submitted to a journal for peer review, but the authors said they had used a methodology common to many other published studies.
Dr Andrew King, one of the co-authors of the research, said: “This points to the fact that there is likely a climate change role here in the chance of having these extreme El Niño conditions. It seems likely there is a human fingerprint emerging in this event.
“We are seeing something that does not appear to have happened before and that is alarming.”
The bureau’s long range forecast for September to November points to an increased chance of below average rainfall for the south and east, but above average for most of the continent’s western half. Temperatures are also likely to be above average south of the tropics.
