
AI-generated summary
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that raises seawater temperatures in the tropical Pacific, increasing the risk of drought and floods and exacerbating the effects of human-caused global warming. At the UN climate negotiations held in Paris in 2015, a consensus was reached to keep global warming well below pre-industrial levels, at a maximum of 2 degrees, and limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.
Copernicus Climate Change Service, the climate monitoring agency of the European Union (EU), reported that the El Nino weather event, which increased in intensity, broke the temperature record in a key region of the Pacific Ocean in September.
In its statement today, the institution noted that this record is a new sign that the weather pattern in question has reached extraordinary strength.
Global weather forecasters have been warning for months that this El Nino could turn into the strongest natural event ever observed.
The latest temperature record was recorded even before the natural event's peak, which is expected to reach later this year.
El Niño, which forms the warming phase of a natural climate cycle, raises seawater temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This triggers weather changes that increase the risk of drought and flood, while also aggravating the effects of human-induced global warming.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the sea surface temperature in the monitoring area known as Nino3.4, which is considered an indicator of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, reached an "all-time high" last month, reaching 29.70 degrees.
The EU monitoring agency stated that this value exceeded the peak temperatures of the strong El Nino periods of 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, and stated that the current picture "reveals the extraordinary severity of the current El Nino".
However, Copernicus said in his statement to the French news agency AFP that "they cannot yet say that the current El Niño is the strongest event ever recorded."
Recent El Niño events may appear stronger than those experienced in the past as climate change increases ocean temperatures. This effect makes historical comparisons between different periods difficult.
Announcing that it has adopted a new index that takes into account the warming in tropical oceans, Copernicus stated that, according to this new calculation method, the current event is not yet stronger than past examples.
But the agency told AFP that values measured in September "already indicate an exceptionally strong El Nino, especially considering that the event has not yet reached its peak."
At the United Nations (UN) climate negotiations held in Paris in 2015, world states reached an agreement to keep global warming "well below" pre-industrial levels, at a maximum of 2 degrees, and to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees in order to limit the devastating effects of the climate crisis.
However, in its official announcement in September, the UN announced that the long-term 1.5 degree target would be exceeded within a few years.
In his written statement on the subject, Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said, "We are in a new series of months in which temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees, and it seems likely that this situation will continue until 2027 due to the strong El Niño, which is still increasing its intensity."
Buontempo said, "It is only a matter of time before the long-term limit of the Paris Agreement is exceeded. How far we will exceed the limit and how long this situation will last is still in our hands."
Scientists state that it is vital to quickly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels in order to narrow the "overshoot" period above 1.5 degrees and bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible.
Experts warn that this developing El Nino could push global temperatures to a new historical record level in 2027.
El Niño, which generally occurs every 2 to 7 years and lasts approximately 9 to 12 months, warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing widespread changes in wind, pressure and precipitation patterns around the world.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Global temperatures could reach a new historical record in 2027
Likely · Within years
El Nino may continue to increase in intensity until the end of 2024
Possible · Within months

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Disaster Coordination Center (AKOM) published a weather report that includes partly cloudy, showery and storm expectations in Istanbul between 12-18 October. While thunderstorms and 5-15 kg/m² of precipitation are expected on Tuesday, 30-60 kg/m² of precipitation is expected on Wednesday.

On Monday, October 12, 2026, 20 different earthquakes were recorded in Türkiye from 00:08 to 08:41. The earthquake with the strongest magnitude of 5.3 occurred in the Gökçeсу-Gönen region of Balıkesir. Time, location, depth and magnitude information of the earthquakes were shared with AFAD's data.
The General Directorate of Meteorology reported that partly and very cloudy weather with showers and thunderstorms are expected in most parts of Türkiye. A 'yellow' alert was issued for 13 provinces, and a fog warning was issued in the Marmara and Black Sea. Air temperatures will drop by 4-6 degrees.

The General Directorate of Meteorology reported that partly and very cloudy weather with showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the country. A 'yellow' alert was issued for 13 provinces, and a fog warning was issued in Marmara and the Western and Central Black Sea. The air temperature will drop by 4-6 degrees.

According to the General Directorate of Meteorology, while partly and very cloudy weather is expected in Türkiye today and this week, there will be showers and thunderstorms in the Marmara, Aegean, Mediterranean, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Southeastern Anatolia regions. It is estimated that rainfall will be heavy in some regions and temperatures will drop by 4-6 degrees in the southern and western parts.

The General Directorate of Meteorology predicts that the country will be mostly cloudy and clear, while the southern parts will be partly cloudy. Local showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeastern Anatolia, south of Kayseri, Niğde, Malatya and Elazığ. In the morning and at night, haze and occasional fog can be seen in the Marmara, Northern and Inner Aegean and Western Black Sea. No significant change in air temperatures is expected; The wind will generally blow from the south, and in the southeastern parts it will blow from the north in some places, and will blow in moderate force from time to time.