El Nino Strengthening, Expected to Persist Through Early Spring 2027
Quick Look
- El Nino is strengthening and expected to persist through early spring 2027, with a 97% chance.
- A very strong event is likely this autumn, potentially causing extreme weather globally, including in China and impacting India's monsoon rainfall.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
El Nino is a natural phenomenon where weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, leading to altered global weather patterns, including drought and heavy rainfall.
El Nino is strengthening and will persist through early spring 2027. A very strong El Nino event is expected this autumn. This phenomenon typically causes higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns. China faces risks of extreme weather like flooding and heatwaves.
India's monsoon season may bring below-average rainfall, impacting summer crops.
El Nino will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
"There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Nino during October-December that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950", the U.S. weather forecaster added.
Also Read: El Nino impact in sight even as top FMCG firms bet on rising India consumption
* The El Nino is a phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This typically leads to higher global temperatures and altered weather patterns, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rainfall to others.
* Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather said El Nino event typically result in cooler and wetter conditions across the Midwest during the late summer months, favorable for corn and soybeans during their moisture sensitive reproductive phases, and thus a higher likelihood of increased yield and production for both crops.
Live Events
* A strong to super-strong eastern Pacific-type El Nino event is expected to form this summer and autumn, raising risks for extreme weather such as flooding and heatwaves across China this year and the next, state news agency Xinhua reported, citing forecasts by the National Climate Centre.
Also Read: The 'little boy' in the Pacific, India's monsoon and the big test ahead
* "El Nino episodes typically lead to a weaker monsoon season for India, and at present, monsoonal rainfall has been 40% below the long term average. Thus, negative impacts are likely for summer crops there," Keeney said.
* Monsoon in India is expected to bring below-average rainfall to the country's western and southern regions over the next fortnight, potentially slowing the sowing of cotton, soybeans and corn, two senior weather officials said.
* The United Nations weather agency last week raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Nino in the coming months, warning that the phenomenon is likely to drive global temperatures higher.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
El Nino event will persist through early spring 2027.
Very likely · Within months
A very strong El Nino event will occur during October-December.
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific regions in China will be most affected by flooding and heatwaves?
- What is the projected severity of the impact on India's summer crop yields?
- Will other major agricultural regions experience similar impacts?