The PP-A would repeat its victory in Andalusia with Vox on the rise and PSOE-A on the decline according to the 'Andalusian CIS'

The PP-A could repeat in an Andalusian election the victory it achieved in the recent elections on May 17, with 41.5% of the votes and between 52 and 53 seats, according to the barometer published this Monday, October 19, by the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (Centra), the Andalusian CIS, dependent on the Ministry of the Presidency, Health and Emergencies of the Junta, which is the first with estimation data of voting that is disseminated after the last regional elections, and from which it is also clear that the PSOE-A would worsen its results compared to that appointment with the polls, while Vox would improve them.

This is a barometer carried out between September 11 and 25 of this year 2026 on a sample of 3,600 people residing in Andalusia of legal age, which places the PP-A with a similar number of seats to that achieved in the regional elections of May 17, when it was left with 53, two of the 55 that grant the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament, and would be ahead in 22.6 points to the PSOE-A, which would concentrate 18.9% of the votes and obtain between 23 and 26 deputies, less than the 28 achieved five months ago.

According to the same survey, Vox would grow in vote estimates compared to the May event and would repeat as the third force with the most votes in the community, with 16.1% of the votes - 2.3 points more than those obtained in the last regional elections -, surpassing Adelante Andalucía, which would once again be the fourth force with 12.5% ​​support, 2.9 points more than in 17M.

For Andalusia - the coalition of IU, Podemos and Movimiento Sumar, among other left-wing forces - it would be the fifth most voted candidate and would obtain 6.5% of the votes - 0.2 points more than five months ago - which would give it between four and five seats.

The survey reflects that, among the formations with parliamentary representation currently in Andalusia, Vox, Adelante and Por Andalucía would improve in votes compared to the May 2026 elections, obtaining 2.3%, 2.9% and 0.2% more in each case, respectively, while the PP-A would lose 0.1%, and the PSOE-A, 3.9%.

in seats

Translated into seats, this result would give between 52 and 53 seats for the PP-A in the Andalusian Parliament, compared to the 53 it currently has, and when the absolute majority is reached with 55 deputies in the Autonomous Chamber, while the PSOE-A led by María Jesús Montero would drop from its current 28 deputies until it is left with a range of 23-26, which would be the worst historical result of the socialists in elections autonomous.

For its part, Vox would obtain between 16 and 20 seats, when in the last regional elections it obtained 15 parliamentarians; while Adelante Andalucía would achieve between nine and ten seats, one or two more than its current eight deputies.

The survey assigns Por Andalucía, a coalition led by the federal coordinator of IU, Antonio Maíllo, between four and five deputies, when it now has five in the regional Parliament.