The railway tragedy in the Toledo town of Urda that has once again shaken Spain just nine months after that of Adamuz (Córdoba), with a combined toll of 115 fatalities, has had an immediate impact on the electoral prospects of the PSOE. After the catastrophic train crash last Wednesday, not only has the upward trend that the party of Pedro Sánchez, the majority partner of the coalition at the head of the Government and head of the Ministry of Transport, had registered after the call of the general elections been stopped short, but for the first time so far in the legislature it has fallen below 25% in voting intention and the psychological barrier of 100 seats in Congress.
Conversely, the data from the Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO, the first carried out entirely after the accident, confirm that the PP is once again on the path of growth, with an increase of five tenths in one week, which places it at 31.1% of the votes. This is practically how much Vox has fallen in this same period of time, falling to 19.3% of support. The formations of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal, even in the lowest range, would continue to add up to a very large absolute majority of 196 deputies, which makes an alternative parliamentary arithmetic impossible after the scrutiny on November 29.
To the surprise of his own and others, Sánchez had begun to mobilize his potential voters with a pre-campaign of dances at rallies, appealing to the "strength of love" - with a resounding kiss to his wife included - and a strategic media tour of relaxed interviews to "humanize" him. The last one had been in the podcast Keep it crapre, which, although it had been recorded the previous afternoon, was being broadcast on Wednesday morning just when an AVE hit an Iryo near Urda with a result of 69 people dead, an accident that has turned around the demographic forecasts.
According to the Sigma Dos barometer, prepared between October 29 and 30 - the two days after the accident - with a sample of 2,505 interviews, if the elections were held today the PSOE would obtain 24.6% of the votes, one and a half points less than a week ago and seven below its balance in 2023 -31.7%-, when it obtained 121 representatives. In total, 450,000 votes would be left in three days. Now it would have between 97 and 103 seats out of the 350 in the chamber, with a probable result within that range of 99, taking into account the distribution of the remains by provinces.
Furthermore, the difference in support at the polls between Sánchez and Feijóo, which in the last general elections was 1.4%, would now widen to 6.5%. The leader of the PP, who after the train accident has tried to project a profile of an effective manager endorsed by his 13 years at the head of Xunta de Galicia, would have a group of between 133 and 139 representatives for the next legislature, with realistic expectations of remaining at the high end of the range, at 138, one more than now.
Despite its setback in the last week, in which it has been the only party that has not suspended its pre-campaign events after the declaration of three days of official mourning for the victims of the Urda accident, in any case Vox would continue to lead spectacular growth in Congress. Those of Abascal would maintain their position as the third political force but practically doubling their representation: from 33 deputies they would have between 63 and 69, with a probability of scoring 65 in application of the D'Hondt Law.
The current context would also hamper the electoral chances of Frente Amplio, despite the fact that its leader, Ada Colau, has called for the resignation of the Minister of Transport, Óscar Puente, "as soon as possible" considering that, after two serious railway accidents in less than a year, "political responsibilities" must be assumed. Despite its attempt to distance itself from the Government in this way, the formation heir to Sumar - a minority coalition partner - loses three tenths of support in a matter of days, falling to 7.1%, and would score between nine and 11 seats compared to the 31 that Yolanda Díaz won in 2023.
