Presidential elections in Brazil: close first round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

The polls have closed in Brazil and now we only have to wait for the official results. This Sunday, the main economy of Latin America held a very close first presidential round, according to all the polls, between the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is fighting for his fourth non-consecutive term, and the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the first-born of former president Jair Messias. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal uploads the results progressively on its website, as the data arrives from the electronic ballot boxes throughout the country. If none of the candidates reaches 50% plus one vote, a second round will be held on October 25.

Earlier, Bolsonaro called on voters to opt for “a change,” because “Brazil can't take it anymore.” Lula, for his part, voted at a school in São Bernardo do Campo, in the industrial belt of São Paulo where he was born into political life. "We'll see what kind of Brazil the people chose. I'm very confident," the president said.

In addition to the presidential vote, the almost 159 million voters elected governors, two senators per state, the 513 federal deputies and the deputies of the state assemblies.

Flavio Bolsonaro's team announces that the candidate will make a first statement this Sunday at 8:00 p.m. in Brazil.

The first data from the count, just one hour before the polls close, show an advantage for Flávio Bolsonaro (50.64%) over President Lula, in second place with 40.97%.

The electoral count also reflects that Brazil is a continental and unequal country, as well as home to 159 million voters. The votes from the polling stations in the south of the country, from the urban centers, the richest and best connected areas, are the first to enter the count. That is why at the beginning of the scrutiny the right usually appears more strongly. And the left of Lula and the Workers' Party begins to gain traction with the count already advanced, when votes from the northeastern region of Brazil, the president's native land and the historically poorest Brazil, begin to enter in force.

After 30 minutes after the close of the election, Brazil's electoral justice system began to publish the first data from the provisional count.

With barely 3% of the sections counted, the far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro appears leading the results, with 49.66% of the votes. President Lula was second, with 41.75%.

In Brazilian elections, it is common for right-wing forces to appear better positioned in the first part of the vote count, coming from the richest and best-connected areas.

To win in the first round, a presidential candidate needs to obtain 50% plus one of the valid votes. If that does not happen, there will be a second round of elections on October 25.

Student Thaismara Correia, 29, is one of those convinced that the Brazilian flag belongs to all Brazilians. That's why this Sunday you went to vote at a school in the Consolação neighborhood in São Paulo dressed in a yellow t-shirt and two small stickers on your chest with Lula's face. "I'm wearing yellow because the flag is ours, everyone's, not just the other side. And the stickers make it clear which side I'm on."

For this Lula voter, the 80 years of the president and leader of the Workers' Party do not concern her at the moment. "It's his last chance, but he's healthy, he's in good shape... as long as he can do the job, it seems valid to me."

At 5:00 p.m. this Sunday, Brazil has closed the polls in a very close election between President Lula and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The main economy in Latin America concludes the first round of elections in which Lula, who is seeking re-election for what would be his fourth non-consecutive term, and his rival are practically tied according to the polls.

Thus officially begins the counting of votes of the nearly 159 million Brazilians summoned to elect, in addition to the president, governors, two senators per state, 513 federal deputies and the deputies of the state assemblies. It is presumed that the electronic voting system will allow the result to be known in a few hours. If none of the presidential candidates wins 50% plus one of the valid votes this Sunday, a second electoral round will be held in three weeks, on October 25.

The candidates voted early in the morning. Lula did it in São Paulo, while Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro. The day has developed normally, without major incidents. The Federal Police have detained 129 people on suspicion of electoral crimes and have seized 383,600 reais in cash (about $73,000).

The Regional Electoral Court of São Paulo has reported that the storms that fell during election day have left 33 areas of this state, the most populated in Brazil, with 34 million eligible voters without power. The court has clarified that the lack of electricity supply does not pose a risk to the voting in progress, since the electronic ballot boxes used work with a battery that has an autonomy of up to ten hours and also have backup batteries.

The power outages have been temporary in most of the affected areas and at four in the afternoon only the city of Alvares Machado, in the interior of the state of São Paulo, remained in darkness.

Heavy rains have complicated access to polling places in some municipalities and may have an impact on participation. Although voting is mandatory for all Brazilians between 18 and 70 years old, the penalty for not going to the polls is just over three reais, that is, less than one dollar.

The Brazilian Federal Police has detained 129 people on suspicion of electoral crimes until three in the afternoon, according to the partial police report published by the newspaper Folha de São Paulo. In the police operations, 383,600 reais in cash (73,000 dollars) and goods with a value equivalent to 80,000 dollars more have also been seized.

Until then, six investigations and 18 simplified procedures for possible violations had been opened. Among the main irregularities detected are cases of illegal electoral propaganda and electoral corruption, especially suspicions of vote buying.

Police actions have been carried out in the Federal District and in 21 States, including São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.

The president of the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil, Kassio Nunes Marques, ruled out foreign interference in the elections that take place this Sunday. The magistrate's statement came after the Federal Police admitted the opening of an investigation into the alleged interference of the United States through the diversion of funds to networks and organizations aimed at hindering political debate and discrediting justice.

"Our reports do not indicate any type of risk, whether international or coming from organized crime. We have not received any indication in this regard. And so far, it is a fact: nothing has happened," said the magistrate during a press conference at the court headquarters, according to the newspaper Estadão.

Hours earlier, the director of the Federal Police, Andrei Rodrigues, had confirmed the start of a formal investigation based on the complaint from the Brazilian Attorney General's Office. “We already have an investigation underway,” Rodrigues told local press.

Former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a sentence for a coup d'état in house arrest, is “anxious, but confident” in the result of this Sunday's elections, said his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro. “My husband is fine, thank God,” Michelle told reporters after voting at a polling station in Lago Sur, a high-income district of Brasilia. Michelle Bolsonaro is a candidate for a seat in the Senate and leads voting intention polls in the Federal District of Brasilia.

Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced last year to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup d'état after his defeat in the 2022 elections against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. For health reasons, Justice authorized him in March to serve his sentence in house arrest, in the house he shares with his wife. Bolsonaro Sr.'s prison future is also at stake in the elections, as his son Flavio has promised to get him out of prison if he comes to power.

The Federal Police of Brazil has opened an investigation into alleged interference by the United States in the South American country. Revealed by the British newspaper The Guardian, the interference would have taken place through the diversion of one million dollars corresponding to the Human Rights and Democracy Fund and its use to finance networks and organizations aimed at obstructing political debate and destabilizing justice in Brazil.

A storm has already fallen this Sunday in the city of São Paulo, the most populated in the country. The Civil Defense has just sent an alert for the storms that warns of lightning and wind and says that it affects both the capital and neighboring municipalities. Ask the population to stay in safe places.

The state of São Paulo is also the largest electoral college. Together with what is happening in the states of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, it is crucial for the final results of the elections.

Bad weather can scare away the electorate and increase abstention, which four years ago was almost 20%. Voting is mandatory but the fine is a maximum of three reales.

“I don't vote left in any way,” answers lawyer Luilna Moacelin, 70, when asked about the reasons for choosing a candidate. “I vote for Flávio Bolsonaro so that Bolsonaro gets out of prison because he is imprisoned without having done anything, not like those thieves who are loose in the Government.”

Dressed in a T-shirt with the colors of the Brazilian flag, like her companion, she emphasizes that she and her husband raised their daughters "with our own struggle, we never depended on the Government for anything." That is why they have come to vote at a private university in the Consolação neighborhood, in São Paulo, although at their age it is no longer mandatory.

She confesses that she has been anguished for a few days, it is scary what could happen if he [President Lula] wins. We can become a Venezuela, we do not have the Supreme Court, there is no legal security! “I think about my daughters and my granddaughter and I get sick.”

The cleaner Silvaneide Guedes comes from the Higiénopolis metro in a hurry, she is on her way to work. He voted early in the morning in his neighborhood, far from this bourgeois area of São Paulo where he works. “I voted for Lula, out of gratitude, for Bolsa Familia, because with Minha Casa Minha Vida I got my house in a small town in Alagoas, because we have school meals… he has always cared about the northeasterners.” He has seven children, including two adult daughters who have also voted for the Workers' Party. “I hope Lula is elected today, in the name of Jesus,” she confides, piously. And he dreams that Congress will approve next week, as planned, the reduction of the working day from six working days to five, without loss of salary.

The Military Police of São Paulo recorded 45 incidents related to the elections and arrested 15 people in the state during the morning of this Sunday.