First you need to remember what midterm elections are. In the United States, Parliament is renewed every two years (entirely for the House of Representatives, a third of the seats rotate for the Senate), unlike the presidential elections which are held every four years. This means that halfway through the President's mandate - hence the term midterm - a parliamentary election is held: this round is widely considered a 'thermometer' of citizens' satisfaction with the occupant of the White House.
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Elections in the United States are always held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (to avoid voting falling on the first day of the month). This year, therefore, the polls will open on November 3, even though early voting by mail is a widespread practice in the country: according to an analysis by USA Today, around 30% of voters have used this system in 2024. For those who physically go to the polls, the rules for voting change from area to area: in fact, it is the states that have jurisdiction over the election procedures, and not the federal government.
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Historically, midterm elections represent a slippery appointment for the President in office: it is in fact frequent that, if a party controls both houses of Parliament, at least one moves to the opposition. It happened in 2022 to Joe Biden, in 2018 to Trump, in 2014 and 2010 to Obama: the appointment is in fact often used by voters to ask for a course correction to the policies of the White House. And the President's popularity is often decisive in determining who will win the midterms.
Ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote, polls indicate that Donald Trump's approval rating has reached an all-time low: it is only 31% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on October 19. A drop of one percentage point from two weeks ago and the lowest level recorded during the entire presidential term. Energy prices and inflation are having a particular impact, as is the high cost of fuel which is hitting hard in areas of the country that traditionally vote Republican.
Additionally, when asked which party they would vote for if the midterm elections were held today, about 47% of registered voters who participated in the poll said Democrats, versus 35% who chose Republicans. A 12-point advantage in favor of the Dems which is the largest recorded in the current electoral cycle and could strengthen their hopes of gaining control of at least one of the two branches of Parliament, even if their success is far from assured.
As mentioned, the Republicans currently enjoy a very slim majority in the House: they are 218 out of 435, plus one independent who usually sides with them. In any case, all the seats will be up for grabs at the polls, so the Democrats will only need to win two districts to gain a majority in the House. According to the average of the polls collected by the New York Times, the Dems will currently certainly win 202 seats and are ahead in 12 others: this means that they will still need to conquer at least 4 other constituencies among those in the balance. And only the polls will be able to say whether they will be able to gain control of the Chamber.
The situation in the Senate is slightly different: here there are 65 seats where there will be no voting - the senatorial mandate lasts 6 years and the senators are renewed in groups every two years, 33 seats at a time - of which 34 are controlled by the Democrats and 31 by the Republicans. The Dems therefore need to obtain 17 seats at the polls to wrest control of the Chamber: 13 should be secured according to the polls, thus improving the party's situation in any case. To obtain a majority in the Senate, however, they need to win at least 3 of the 7 considered 'too close to call', that is, with a distance between the two candidates that is too narrow to know first who will get the seat.
Many observers think that the Democrats will be able to gain control of the House, and it is possible that they will even manage to snatch a slim majority in the Senate. In any case, even if they were to succeed, this victory would not have direct implications on Trump's presidency: his mandate in fact lasts another two years regardless of the outcome of this electoral round. However, a Congress entirely controlled by Democrats could make life much more difficult for Trump: it is no coincidence that a president in his second term (and therefore cannot be re-elected) in this situation is sometimes called a "lame duck".
