Electricity prices skyrocket - getting worse this week

Monday–Wednesday looks to be even more expensive than the prices we saw last week, when it looks like it will be completely windless in Germany, says Johan Sigvardsson.

The worst affected are electricity customers in electricity area SE4, that is Skåne, Blekinge, Halland, Kronoberg and Kalmar.

With almost half of Nordic nuclear power switched off, the transmission capacity between electricity areas is being throttled. This makes Southern Sweden even more dependent on imports of electricity from neighboring countries - where sky-high gas prices push up electricity prices.

On the electricity exchange Nord Pool, the average price in electricity area SE4 rose to SEK 3.20 per kilowatt hour on Friday. With that, the average price so far in November ends up in the electricity area of ​​almost SEK 3 - which will easily be a new high for the year.

This can be compared with October, when the average price in electricity area SE4 of SEK 1.57 per kilowatt hour was a new high for the year.

Electricity area SE3 - with the big cities of Stockholm and Gothenburg - also gets its share of the ladle. But north of the Dalälven – in electricity areas SE1 and SE2 – the price picture is completely different. There, the average price so far in November is 17 and 11 öre per kilowatt hour, respectively, according to Nord Pool. There is a large surplus in the electricity system, which pushes prices down.

Several nuclear power plants are to be restarted in November after unexpectedly long periods of maintenance and repairs. Then the supply of electricity is expected to increase in southern Sweden, which has a dampening effect on electricity prices in SE3 and SE4.

On the futures market, however, high electricity prices are still seen in southern Sweden. They point to SEK 1.70 per kilowatt hour on average for the period December–February in SE4, while SE3, according to pricing on the futures market, ends up around SEK 1.30 per kilowatt hour.

For SE1 and SE2, the forward prices for December–February are approximately 65 öre per kilowatt hour.

The high gas prices on the continent are closely linked to the supply disruptions resulting from the Iran war. Should the attempts to mediate peace between Iran and the US succeed, they could fall back relatively quickly - even if gas deliveries from the Persian Gulf take a long time to reach Europe.

- If you know that the supply will be better in the future, you can take what you have in stock today and then gas prices will fall, says Sigvardsson.