How much will inflation and dollar be? Economists' forecasts have been revealed

According to the survey conducted by Matriks Haber with the participation of 29 banks and brokerage firms, economists' inflation expectation in October was 2.40 percent monthly and 29.54 percent annually. While the year-end inflation forecast remained at 29.50 percent, the end-2026 dollar/TL expectation decreased to 51.60.

OCTOBER INFLATION EXPECTATION IS 2.40 PERCENT

In Matriks Haber's survey on October 2026 inflation and next-term Consumer Price Index (CPI) and dollar/TL expectations, the median estimate for monthly inflation was calculated as 2.40 percent. Annual inflation expectation was 29.54 percent.

Average expectations were recorded as 2.33 percent on a monthly basis and 29.44 percent on an annual basis.

Monthly expectations of 21 banks and brokerage firms that gave forecasts for October CPI varied between 1.90 percent and 2.70 percent. Annual forecasts ranged from 28.89 percent to 29.90 percent.

In September, CPI increased by 1.84 percent, below the expectation of a monthly increase of 2.21 percent, and annual inflation was announced as 29.73 percent.

The median expectation of 10 economists who made predictions for the C Index, which is one of the CPI indicators excluding energy, food, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold, was 2.20 percent monthly and 28.45 percent annually.

October inflation data is expected to be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:00.

YEAR-END INFLATION EXPECTATION HAS NOT CHANGED

The CPI expectation for the end of 2026, calculated with the participation of 26 economists in the Matriks News survey, remained unchanged at 29.50 percent. The prediction range was between 29 percent and 32 percent. In the previous survey period, this range was between 28 percent and 31.70 percent.

The inflation expectation of 14 economists for the end of 2027 decreased from 23.50 percent to 23.25 percent. The prediction range, which was between 22.50 percent and 27 percent in the previous period, was calculated as 15 percent and 25 percent in the new survey.

The annual CPI median forecast for 12 months ahead was 24.15 percent.

YEAR-END DOLLAR/TL FORECAST DECREASED TO 51.60

The dollar/TL expectation of 19 analysts for the end of 2026 decreased to 51.60 from 51.80 in the previous survey period. Predictions ranged from 50.39 to 52.50. In the previous survey, the expectation range was between 50 and 54.01.

The dollar/TL median estimate for 12 months ahead was calculated as 60.1250.