England and Wales to release 700 prisoners on 1 October under revised early release plan
Quick Look
- The UK government's revised early prison release plan will see approximately 700 offenders leave jails in England and Wales on 1 October, with around 2,550 released by year-end.
- The plan, signed into law by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, maintains the original schedule but delays the start date by one month and excludes rape, grooming, and child sex offences.
- Prison capacity in England and Wales is at 97%, with only about 1,500 free spaces across the male prison estate.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The original early release plan had scheduled offenders serving sentences of up to 19 months to be eligible for release from 2 September after serving a third of their sentence. The revised plan delays the start date to 1 October and excludes certain serious offences.
About 700 eligible offenders will leave jails in England and Wales on the morning of 1 October and some 2,550 will have been released by the end of the year, the government's revised early prison release plan shows.
The new plan, signed into law and published online, shows Andy Burnham's government kept the promised original schedule of how and when offenders will leave jail, aside from delaying the start date by a month and excluding specific offences from the programme.
Under the original plan, offenders serving sentences of up to 19 months would have been eligible from 2 September to walk out of jail after serving a third of that time.
In the Commons on Wednesday, Burnham said he understood the "anguish" of victims and "listened to what they were saying".
"I came in and asked for changes to the early release scheme, and we excluded rape, grooming, and child sex offences," the prime minister added.
Prisoners will now qualify for their earlier release from 1 October and officials estimate that around 700 will walk out of the prison gates that day.
From 13 October, governors will release a second tranche of 650 prisoners who have been serving sentences of between 19 months and two years and five months.
Prisons in England and Wales are running at 97% capacity, with the latest Ministry of Justice figures showing the number of available spaces across the male prison estate at its lowest this year, with about 1,500 free spaces.
Under the original plan, prisons and probation services had almost six weeks to prepare this second group following the first releases, but they now have less than a fortnight.
The rest of the estimated 4,500 releases will then be phased in following the dates below. Some 1,400 more offenders were due to be released under the original plans before revisions made after certain offences were excluded.
The estimated numbers are Ministry of Justice calculations:
The offenders serving the longer sentences, which do not become part of the scheme until next year, include more dangerous criminals who would have previously expected to spend two-thirds of their sentence behind bars.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Prison and probation services will face operational challenges in processing the second tranche of releases starting 13 October due to the shortened preparation period.
Likely · Within weeks
Public debate over the early release scheme will continue, particularly regarding the balance between reducing prison overcrowding and maintaining public safety.
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific criteria determine eligibility for the second tranche of releases starting 13 October?
- How will probation services manage the increased workload with less than two weeks to prepare for the second tranche?
- What monitoring mechanisms are in place to track released offenders and prevent reoffending?
