Eritrean troops in Ethiopia raise fears of a regional war

Various sources have confirmed the presence of Eritrean armed forces in Ethiopia. An AFP report quoted a foreign security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, as estimating that 5,000 to 8,000 Eritrean soldiers were present in Tigray.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia and Eritrea are ramping up their war talk.

According to Reuters, the government of Ethiopia has written to the UN Security Council, calling for the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops from its territory.

In the letter, dated Oct. 8, Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos said the Eritrean troops' presence left Ethiopia with "no option but to defend itself against Eritrea," the news agency reported.

Eritrea's Minister of Information Yemane Meskel, in a post on X on October 7, had accused Ethiopia of "incessantly beating the drums of war."

"The sovereign state of Eritrea is bound by blood and law," Yemane wrote in the national Tigrinya language on October 9. "Woe to those who touch it."

The war talk by Ethiopia and Eritrea comes amid a conflict that is seen to be deteriorating rapidly in recent weeks.

Some experts have suggested that Ethiopia may have intentionally triggered the escalation. Just last week, it expelled diplomats from Eritrea and Egypt, causing Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties altogether.

On Monday, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn in for another five years, he stated that access to the sea was a priority. The statement fueled fresh speculation that he intends to take Eritrea's strategic port of Assab by force and prompted fierce reactions from the Eritrean side.

Abiy's internal opposition: Tsimdo and the Alliance for Survival

While the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF), aided by the Tigray Peace Force milita, have made significant advances and notably recaptured the Tigray federal state capital of Mekelle, opposition to Ethiopia has found new formats for collaboration.

One is the so-called Tsimdo movement, a Tigrinya term that loosely translates as "engagement."

"The Tsimdo concept initially surfaced through cross-border peace initiatives involving activists, religious figures, and local communities in the Tigray and Eritrea border villages in 2025," Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, senior East Africa analyst with the US-based conflict monitor ACLED, told DW.

It has since undergone several reconfigurations and now encompasses diverse groups within Ethiopia, mostly defined along ethnic lines and with long-standing grievances against the federal government.

The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, or simply Alliance for Survival, that was proclaimed in September, stems from this movement. According to Jalale, the alliance aims at removing the current government and initiating a constitutional dialogue.

The new alliance says a lot about the long history of unresolved conflict in Ethiopia, said Abdurahman Sayed, an analyst at the Horn of Africa Centre for Regional Integration.

"The fighting inside Ethiopia has never stopped," Sayed told DW.

"With the Oromo Liberation Army, it's been going on for decades, with the Amhara, it's been going on for the last three years, at least. With the Tigrayans, the Pretoria agreement about three years ago was just a cessation of hostility that would have led to some kind of sustainable peace by addressing the root causes of the conflict — but it failed to do that, so they're back to the conflict situation now."

However, of the seven groups in the alliance, ACLED data shows that only three were involved in recent fighting: The Tigrayan Defence Forces (TDF), the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM), and a fairly recently formed ethnic Afar group called Ugugumo.

Joint declaration by Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia

The success of the Alliance for Survival would depend in large part on the support they get through external actors, according to ACLED. Those could include neighboring Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia.

"All these four countries have grievances against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government," Sayed said.

"The Egyptians have issues with the Nile River and how it should be administered, including the dams that are already there and those planned to be built around the Nile River. The Sudanese also have their own concerns that Ethiopians are supporting the [Rapid Support Forces] militia, which is fighting the Sudanese army."

In the case of Somalia, the issue of sea access has sparked tensions. Landlocked Ethiopia has negotiated access to the port of Berbera in Somaliland . In 2024, it signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region, causing uproar in Somalia, which considers the deal a violation of its national sovereignty. Turkish mediation was needed to calm things down.

"So all those neighboring countries have their own concerns and they feel this threat that is coming from Ethiopia needs to be tackled collectively."

On October 4, the leaders of the four countries issued a joint declaration that didn't mention Ethiopia but seemed to send a strong signal. The leaders stressed the importance of international law, "particularly respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the states of the region."

And it maintained that "the governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of the littoral states."

Although the leaders of Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia vowed to promote "peaceful solutions to conflicts," the reality on the ground may prove otherwise.