Ethiopia: Tigraan offensive violates the 2022 peace agreement

According to Reuters, the offensive means the actual collapse of the peace agreement concluded in November 2022 in Pretoria. It ended the civil war between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in 2020–2022.

The TPLF-led administration of Tigray said the federal government had intensified its actions against the people of the region. The statement said that Tigray's forces were ordered to repel the attack and joined a "defensive war."

Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and a former TPLF activist, wrote on X that Tigray's formations have taken control of airports that were previously under the control of federal authorities. A "full-scale attack" was also to be launched against government positions in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.

Due to the situation, Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to Tigray.

Clashes in Afar and Amhara

Four sources cited by Reuters confirmed fighting in Tigray, Afar and Amhara.

According to these accounts, Tigray forces in the Afar region are operating jointly with a local armed group. In Amhara, they are to fight alongside the Fano militia (Amharic armed group). This formation supported the federal government during the previous war in Tigray, but in 2023 it took up arms against it.

The Afar authorities accused the TPLF of the invasion and announced that they would defend the region in cooperation with allies.

Residents of Lalibela, Amhara, told Reuters that federal forces used heavy weapons from a base in the city. The fire was supposed to be aimed at Fano's troops, which were approaching Lalibela.

A new alliance against the Abiy government and fears of a crisis

Tension between the TPLF and the authorities in Addis Ababa has been growing for many months. On Sunday, the TPLF announced an alliance with six other armed groups from different parts of Ethiopia. The aim of this coalition is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power.

Analysts and diplomats have been warning for months that a renewed conflict in Tigray could lead to a broader war in the Horn of Africa (Somali Peninsula). The region also remains unstable due to the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan.

Tigray has still not recovered from the effects of the 2020-2022 war. According to data from the UN refugee agency, in February about 750,000 the region's inhabitants remained internally displaced. The situation is aggravated by drought associated with the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project previously reported several drone attacks on Tigrayan forces in recent months. US authorities on Tuesday condemned the recent drone attack on a Catholic Relief Services humanitarian aid convoy in Tigray and called for an investigation.

According to the Catholic Eparchy of Adigrat, Sunday's attack destroyed a truck carrying food for internally displaced people. The Ethiopian federal government has not commented on reports of drone attacks.

The African Union called on the parties to the conflict in Ethiopia to immediately reduce tension and start direct talks.